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Live Quebec blogging Election results

8:00pm EST: The Quebec polls close.. here comes the results!!!

8:02 pm – No one has called the election yet.. quelle surprise! I always love these folks when they show one poll out of a riding and say.. “well.. we were expecting the PQ to do well here.. but they’re down 26 votes.. but uh.. remember.. its only 1 poll”
No kidding.

8:05pm – Lib 2, PQ 1, ADQ 1 (leading or elected). “Very early”. 63 seats out of 125 are needed for a majority.

8:07pm – CBC is hard at it trying to make a projection already. Something tells me that might take awhile. Don’t underestimate those computer models though! We’re stuck at Lib 2, PQ 1, ADQ 1 still – results are slow to trickle in yet.

8:09pm – the PQ draws into a tie with the Libs at 2-2. Cadieux of the ADQ is ahead in Ungava – PQ stronghold. The caveat: its only 1 poll out of 117.

8:13pm – Libs go up 4-2-1. Liberal hearts jump.

8:14pm – The first result to be declared elected is the PQ member for Iles-De-La-Madeleine. Results stand at 6-3-2 (PQ in 2nd).

8:16pm – Horrors! The PQ leads Mario Dumont in his own riding! The CBC expresses a big surprise (umm.. caveat again.. only based on 1 poll)

8:19pm – The Libs are leading or elected in 10, the PQ 3, the ADQ 2. If that trend were to hold, Antonio of Fuddle-Duddle would be very happy tonight at the end of the night.

8:20PM – The Greens take the lead in a seat!!!! Results are 12 Lib, 5 PQ, 2 ADQ, 1 Green. They can at least say they got on the board in one riding (Laviolette). And uh.. its one poll as you might expect.

8:25m – The Libs jump out very early to a 21-7-6-1 lead. (Greens still hanging on to their 1 seat).

8:28pm – Libs 28, PQ 15, ADQ 10, Green 1. CBC informs us 16 ridings have less then 10 votes leads.

8:31pm – 26 ridings have margins of less then 10 votes. Libs 36, PQ 17, ADQ 16, Green 1.

8:34PM – The ADQ jumps into a tie for 2nd place. Libs 36, ADQ 25, PQ 25. The Greens lose their 1 seat they’re leading in.

8:35 pm – WOW. The ADQ narrows it. Liberals 36, ADQ 34, PQ 24.

8:36pm – The narrow voting margins again show thru. The Liberals jump back to a 40 – 33 – 26 lead. The PQ in 3rd.

8:39Pm – 26 ridings have margins of less then 10 votes. Liberal 44, ADQ 37, PQ 29.

8:41Pm – Now its Quebec Solidaire’s turn as the other minor party to get on the board in 1 riding. Libs 47, ADQ 36, PQ 29, QS 1

8:43pm – Lib 46, ADQ 43, PQ 30, QS 1.

8:45pm – The Libs and ADQ are now deadlocked 45-45. Pq at 31, QS 1.

8:46pm – The ADQ take the LEAD. 45 ADQ, Libs 42, PQ 35, QS 1. Who predicted THAT!!! Even if it isnt decided yet.

8:48Pm – ADQ and Libs are switching back and forth crazily. ADQ 45, Libs 43, PQ 34, QS 1.

8:50Pm – Sigh.. the QS seat disappears.. too bad.. I like the underdogs. ADQ 46, Lib 44, PQ 33.

8:51pm – The Libs and ADQ go back into a tie… and then the Libs jump back into a lead. 47-44-33.

8:52PM – Crazy crazy. 46-46-32.

8:53 PM 16 polls in. The PQ lead in Charest’s riding. Wow. The ADQ may win the government..er.. the most seats at 30.5% of the popular vote.

8:57 PM – The ADQ grab the seat lead again. 45 – 44 – 35. They grab a live shot of Bosclair.. He’s smiling with that frozen painted smile. He knows probably he’s done as a leader for the PQ.

9:00 pm – 45 ADQ, Lib 44, PQ 35. The ADQ folks look in almost a state of shock. It reminds me of the 1990 result in Ontario and the looks on the faces of the NDP and Bob Rae.

9:02PM – CBC declares a minority government. NO KIDDING!

9:04PM – Libs and ADQ draw into a 45-45 deadlock. PQ in 3rd at 35 seats.

9:06PM – According to CBC, Stephen Harper is given credit by one of the ADQ organizers for having created an opening here for the ADQ from their 2006 election results in the Quebec area. The ADQ now has a 47-42-36 lead.

9:10Pm – The PQ continues to lead in Charest’s riding.. by 95 votes with 16 polls of 100-something polls. I suppose that would be a consolation for the PQ if they could knock Charest off. ADQ 48, Lib 43, PQ 34

Greg Morrow of Democraticspace.com is probably going to have his jaw drop when he sees these results tomorrow (he’s on his way to Japan and isnt able to see all these results coming in with the stunning ADQ wave).

9:14PM – 27% of the island of Montreal went to the ADQ (so far). That’s a pretty significant # for a party that barely spent anytime in Montreal (as the commentators say.. he spent 1 day there). With no credible candidates? The backlash against Charest and the Liberals is very very deep. Can we say the budget fiscal imbalance money Harper gave to Quebec failed to help? Yeesh

9:23PM – The Liberals regain a 1 seat lead. 46-45. The PQ trail at 34. The PQ has WIDENED their lead over Jean Charest to 369 votes with a quarter of the polls in.

9:29Pm – Basically a 3 way tie/split in popular vote. Pretty remarkable to see, from a Poli Sci point of view.

9:33 PM – Quebec City has the ADQ leading or elected in 9 of 12 ridings. Their powerbase has come through big-time.

9:40PM – Charest trails by 421 to the PQ with 80 of 212 polls reporting. The Liberals have jumped ahead 46-43-36.

9:48PM – The Liberal leads 45-44-36. The Liberal leads in a few of the seats are 200 votes or less… the party with the most seats in the National Assembly still hangs in the balance.

9:54Pm – Charest is behind by 461 with half the polls in. The Liberals do have a 46-42-37 lead.

9:57PM – Counting problems in the riding in Orford. Only 41 polls in and a 200 vote lead for the Liberal. May that riding come down to who forms the government later in the night? Lib 46, ADQ 41, PQ 38.

10:02pm – 80 POLLS LEFT in Charest’s riding. The PQ increases their lead over Carest by 700+ votes.

10:04PM – Antonio of Fuddle-Duddle predicts Charest loses his riding. He’s a tad despondent – which is predictable. His Liberals do lead 47-40-38 however.

10:05PM – CBC projects a LIBERAL MINORITY Government. Of course, that presumes the ADQ and PQ wont form a coalition to defeat him. Antonio doesnt think so. The ADQ is projected to win the official opposition.

10:09Pm – Current standings: Liberals 46, ADQ 41, PQ 38.

10:12PM – Charest trails by 772 with 60 polls left.

10:21PM The CBC declares Charest has lost his seat to the PQ. A stunner.

10:28pm – Antonio predicts that Charest will survive as premier.. meaning he probably will run in a safe Liberal riding to get back in. Antonio doesn’t feel the Liberals will turf a sitting Quebec premier. (47-41-37)

10:40PM – I find it fascinating that before the election, a Liberal majority government was the key to Harper winning a majority. Now of course, the Liberals reduced to a minority, and the ADQ winning official opposition is …. the key to Harper winning a majority. (Shake head) Pundits.

10:43PM – Current seats as of right now: Liberals 46, ADQ 42, PQ 37.

10:52PM – Antonio tells me now he still thinks Charest will come back to win his riding. I ask him what straws he’s grasping at. He claims advance polls are counted last and that Charest had been declared lost in 2003 and 1998. I dont know.. I think its faint hope at best.

11:01PM – Hmm.. I just checked Sheerbrooke. The CBC is still declaring the PQ candidate in Sheerbrooke elected over Charest. With 29 polls left, Charest has narrowed the lead to 110. Maybe Antonio has a point.

11:22PM – WOW. Charest now pulls ahead by 679 votes with 25 polls left. Tip of the hat to Antonio.

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