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Tories dropping in SC poll, and danger signals to them on Kyoto and Afghanistan

Must have been a good week to poll, I guess. Strategic Council releases their poll tonight as well. Its not as gloomy for them as the Decima poll is… but it still shows them dropping back to their 36% Jan 2006 Election level. The Liberals are also at their 2006 election level – 30%.

What I find most is significant about this poll is that the Tories slid in Ontario substantially, the Green Party now sits only 1% behind the NDP nationally, and perhaps most dangerous for the Tories, an overwhelming majority think we should try “achieve targets and meet our Kyoto commitments”, and that John Baird’s claim of massive job losses was not believable. Afghanistan also is a pothole for them, not so much for not supporting sending them there in the first place – as that was the Liberals who did so – but the fact a plurality want them returned home now.

Not good numbers from either poll today any way you cut it. Its no wonder the Tories are trying to do a mini flip-flop on the environmental package they intend to roll out (or a good propaganda selling job) in trying to show they’re serious about being green.

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15 comments to Tories dropping in SC poll, and danger signals to them on Kyoto and Afghanistan

  • I am always skeptical about guessing the next results as the public seems too volatile. One thing that is clear is Harper will need a perfect storm to get a majority and considering Dion is still relatively new, I think the Liberal numbers will eventually come up. Exactly how things will turn out is pure speculation as I’ve watched enough elections to see how things change. Lets remember, most Canadians aren’t right wing, but with four parties fighting over the centre/left and only one on the right Harper can win without having most Canadians support him, which is truly unfortunate. The important thing is that those opposed to Harper rally behind the Liberals since even at 40% it is still technically possible to lose (its happened numerous times provincially) just depending on how the vote splits.

  • ALW

    Uh huh. Which is why I criticized the Emerson and Fortier appointments, disagreed with the federal budget, disagreed with Flaherty on ATM fees, praised the McGuinty government for posting photos of deadbeat dads, and called for Gordon O’Connor’s resignation, among other things.

    Your problem is you’re so pathetically partisan you can’t even tell the difference in other people’s relative partisanship. I, on the other hand, would never insult thinking Liberals like CalgaryGrit or Fuddle Duddle by lumping them in with brain farts like yourself.

    Oh and as for UWO, then I guess you must not think much of the law student body since they elected me student body president last year. Over a partisan Liberal, incidentally.

  • :em61:

    Aaron.. the only one drinking the Kool_Aid is yourself. For someone who has claimed in the past to be an objective Conservative.. you aren’t any such thing. You are as bad as Aaron or Kate of SDA or the rest of the wingnuts who reside over there on the “lack of reality” scale. Personally.. I wouldnt say too loudly you’re a UWO attendee.. you might embarrass that fine institution.

  • ALW

    Yes, they’re true because you say so, because you’ve deluded yourself into believing your own party’s talking points. I have a little tip for you Scott: most thinking Liberals who go on TV (or folks like Cherniak, for example) don’t actually believe that stuff. Oh, they say it because it scores political points. Which is fair enough: but at least they aren’t dumb enough to actually believe it. Apparently, though, you are.

    It’s obvious that the depth of your political thought process begins and ends with the theatrics of Question Period, poll numbers and newspaper headlines. I guess the boring details and complexity of policy and principles is beneath you – but what did I expect from such a shameless hypocrite like yourself? When the Liberals demand XYZ, of course it shows strength. When the Tories do it, of course it makes them crybabies.

    It’s no wonder you’re in the kool-aid league, Scott. You get two kinds of traffic here: Liberals who come to nod vigorously, and Tories who want a good laugh. No thinking nonpartisan would take you seriously for a second because your nauseating partisanship reeks so badly you can smell it after five seconds on your blog. Congratulations, you’re a hack.

  • Actually, they’re all pretty close to the truth, which is why you guys can’t handle it

    I can’t tell you, Aaron, after having to listen for a couple of months from Conservative supporters about how weak Dion is because he demanded apologies from Harper and the Tories for their disgraceful behaviour in the House – how amusing it was to watch Harpo turn beet red in Question Period today and have a conniption while telling the House the opposition was “anti-military” for daring to question the Afghanistan incompetence and the possible violations to the Geneva Convention. Or, having Vic Towes telling the House how the opposition were all “buddies of the Taliban”, or having Stockwell Day and Harper and Oda and ad nauseaum demanding apologies from the Opposition on all sorts of topics..

    Such a whiny bunch.. I cant wait to hear the Blogging Tories and other Conservative supporters tell me how “weak” they sounded today for all their crying and temper-tantrums they had.

  • ALW

    Smear Machine.

    Ideologically out of step.

    “Mainstream Canada”

    Big Oil.

    US fundamentalists.

    This is what I get for trying to have a grown-up debate with a guy like Scott Tribe. Hey man, sorry to break it to you but the Cliche Store has some new threads in, you might want to go buy some, because those threads you’ve got are starting to look a little ridiculous.

  • Gee Aaron, a bit testy today, are we? Not that I’d blame you.. I’d be too seeing my chances for a Tory majority going down the drain with Stevie’s performance the last 2 weeks (and please please PLEASE keep Gordon O’Connor on as Defence Minister – he’s much more useful to us being in Cabinet then Harper coming to his senses and firing him).

    While we’re at it Aaron, why don’t I quote my friend Jasmine from her excellent blogpost today:

    I mean, if I was a Tory, I’d be kind of baffled – here we are doing (more or less) everything we’d said we’d do – and Canadians still don’t seem to like us enough anyway… I’d start to worry that the Conserv priorities (of flip flopping, waffling, demi-tours) on Kyoto, setting up a new sponsorship program to key initiaties in Tory ridings, breaking their word on income trust, violating the Geneva Convention, cutting my personal income tax exemption, maybe just maybe weren’t actually Canadian priorities…

    I’ll also add the fact the Liberals having a new leader that still isnt that well known, and still needs to get the Liberals organization up to snuff. and the Tories throwing the full smear machine at him, and still not being able to get much sustained traction. It’s telling that a government that should be extolling its positives as Canada’s “slightly used” government can do little more then throw mud at the new Liberal leader and hopes that’s what drives the polls in their favour… but it hasn’t sustained itself.

    As for the Canadian population, I don’t find it surprising that a Conservative would try to ignore popular opinion on things.. some of you are far too ideologically bent to understand when you’re out of step with mainstream Canada.

    There are still ways to try and meet Kyoto targets – even if we’re a a couple years behind schedule (and some of the environmental groups say we still could meet those targets). And why wouldn’t we want to meet the targets Aaron? Are you so concerned about your Big Oil Corporate friends losing the ability to make a few more billion then they might if they have to clean up their act? Isn’t the planet and the future of the world more important to you? Or are you like your fundamentalist cousins in the USA, who say this will just acceleration towards Armageddon, so whats the point of trying to save the Earth from environmental collapse?

    Yup.. I see we have a member of the “Chicken Little” club with us… and “Blowhard Baird” is its president. Fortunately, most Canadians are astute enough and smart enough that they aren’t buying it.

  • ALW

    Yeah okay Scotty. I’m happy to have Liberals keep overestimating Dion. If Harper and co have been doing just a brutal job, how come Dion hasn’t been able to capitalize on anything? Not too much commentary from you on that aspect of these new polls, hmm?

    As for Kyoto, I’m also certain a large majority of Canadians are in favour of cute kittens, more sunshine, and a Canadian hockey team winning the Stanley Cup.

    You heard it here first: even if this government were to collapse tomorrow and be replaced by a Liberal (or god forbid, NDP one), Canada will not meet Kyoto targets on the Kyoto timeline. End of discussion. The previous government wasted so many years doing nothing that they’ve effectively been put out of reach, even if we wanted to meet them.

    In fact, Canada could just shut itself down entirely and it wouldn’t make a dent in the coming enviro-apolocypse being predicted by eco-extremists, because we’re just a drop in the bucket. But hey, it’s more important to feel good about ourselves than to actually worry about total global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  • Thank you, Aaron.. I always aim to educate our Tory loving Kool-Aid drinkers in order to show them the error of their ways. :em19:

  • Great substantive reply, Scott.

  • Ah I am shocked!!! Archie Bunkers’ Time is over????

    Good going..
    marta from Vancouver

  • Chris Harborne

    I figured the Tory flirt with majority territory wouldn’t last.

    The growth of the Greens and the lack of an NDP bump that showed up in the Decima poll, is the biggest news. The Greens and the NDP are in a statistical tie for support. I’m going to guess this poll will keep Jack Layton up late tonight worrying.

  • Aaron: I am happy for the Tories and their supporters to continue to keep underestimating Dion.
    (And for Harper supposedly such a strong leader, those polls don’t say much for him)

    As for your spin on the polls.. keep spinning. Those 2 polls yesterday (and the ones last week) are a major come-down for a group that was all cocky and wanting to call an election just a month ago.

    Stephen:

    Contradictory poll #’s are out there on this issue. The other poll a couple of days ago from Angus-Reid (not the online forum as I understood.. it was commissioned for the Ottawa Citizen) had a larger majority – 2/3 – supporting the Liberal position.

  • Stephen

    Actually, I find this number interesting:

    “eight per cent support the troops remaining until 2009”

    Only 8% support the Liberals’ position on troops in Afghanistan, while 46% support the NDP’s position that they should come home ASAP (i.e. “now”)?

    What a surprise.

  • “Not good numbers from either poll today any way you cut it.”

    Umm, usually being in first place and 6 points ahead of your closest competitor is considered a good thing. Any way you cut it.

    “Afghanistan also is a pothole for them, not so much for not supporting sending them there in the first place – as that was the Liberals who did so – but the fact a plurality want them returned home now.”

    Considering that Dion just moved a motion to keep them there for a few more years, I don’t really see how this result is helping the Liberals. If anything, it should help the NDP. If Dion keeps pushing the mushy middle on Afghanistan, he might see himself being squeezed between Harper and Dion. And he’s just the kind of weak leader to have such a thing happen to him.

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