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Meanwhile, in the current FPTP system…

.A new poll from Ipsos says the Ontario Liberals are headed towards a majority government on October 10 – opening up a 10 point lead over the PC’s.

By the way, the same poll shows that the “leadership matters” theme Tory has tried to portray himself as having as opposed to Dalton McGuinty has failed – He actually TRAILS McGuinty by a percentage point on this question.

DemocraticSPACE.com’s new forecast #’s:

Hill & Knowlton’s Ontario Predictor is even better for the Liberals – anywhere between 63 and 66 Liberal seats, depending on voter turnout for party supporters.

6 comments to Meanwhile, in the current FPTP system…

  • [quote comment=""]Harris would never ever win here again. He’d get creamed.[/quote]

    Weren’t you guys saying the same thing before his first and his second majority governments?

  • I went to the "candidates" debate on health and disability.  The Green won it hands down with the people there although it was only 2 candidates that showed up. It was just so disappointing. To have the selfish inconsiderate McGuinty in again is so tragic.   No hope for the poor in this election; it just grinds on.

  • Lord Kitchener’s Own

    This is pretty astounding, isn’t it!

    "A measure of the Conservative weakness is that the party now ranks last as the second choice of voters, behind even the Green party. The NDP has the greatest second-choice support at 26 per cent, but only 15 per cent name the Tories as their second choice."

    Wow.

  • Lord Kitchener’s Own

    At this rate, if these kind of numbers hold up, I’m not sure Tory can win his own riding.

    As a resident of Don Valley East, I always thought it was stupid for Tory to go up against a popular female cabinet minister in Don Valley West.  However, I also thought he’d probably win, just on the "maybe our MPP will be Premier" factor.  I think the voters of Don Valley West would rather have a cabinet minister than a Leader of the Opposition though, and Kathleen Wynne is quite popular! 

    Democratic space has the riding going to Tory (barely) in their predictions, BUT, they predict Tory taking 42-45% of the vote, and Liberal Kathleen Wynne taking 42-46% of the vote!!!  Clearly, the "Tory win" prediction is based on a "leader/potential Premier" factor, which I agree is normally in play.  Not so much with the numbers noted above (anything below 35% provincially ought to make Tory nervous about winning his own riding, IMHO).

    A week is an eternity in politics of course, but Mr. Tory HAS to turn this around.  If not, I predict not only will his party lose, but he’ll lose personally as well.  At which point his leadership may come into serious question.

  • Harris would never ever win here again. He’d get creamed.

  • In this case, Tory is toast. The Tories will have to find a leader who actually knows how to win back-to-back majorities. Perhaps Harris would consider returning to kick some Liberal butt all over again?

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