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SES: Polling deadlock. More Cons begin to cry.

Greg Staples (of Political Staples) has been on a bit of a hiatus, but he’s been back to comment on polls. Specifically, he was grousing about the Strategic Council Poll that shows a political tie/deadlock and was inferring they weren’t accurate, while also grousing a bit about today’s Decima poll)

Well, I wanted to point out to Greg (and others do as well) that SES has now confirmed the deadlock that SC saw, and at the same time basically confirming their leadership poll they did the other day (that had Blogging Tories and SunMedia columnists crowing alike about how done Dion and the Liberals were) to be as irrelevant to polling intentions as I’ve been arguing for awhile. We elect parties, not presidents.

Cons. 35
Libs 34
NDP 17
BQ 9
Green 6

Note the substantial lower Green Vote in this poll as compared to the SC poll (and other polls) as well as the substantially higher NDP vote – more at traditional NDP voting levels.

I’ll wait with baited breath to hear from Greg Weston and other assorted Sun Media hacks who were proclaiming the death of Dion and the Liberals from a couple of days ago how this poll might actually prove they aren’t quite accurate on that count, and that it actually reflects badly on Harper and the Cons for failing to do anything with this supposed “leadership advantage”

I’ll wait, but I won’t bet money on seeing such a column, though I’ll admit that Mr. Weston is the “fairest” of the Sun columnists when talking politics, so maybe he’ll surprise me.

[email protected]:33pm: Darren quotes a key part of Nik Nanos’ analysis, which I was referring to earlier about electing parties, not presidents:

This research shows that the Harper leadership advantage has not converted itself into the ballot box nationally. For the Tories to move the dial, they have to realize they are fighting the Liberal “brand”

14 comments to SES: Polling deadlock. More Cons begin to cry.

  • How much are they up in the West compared to before?  Anyway, back to my core point, how many times in the past two years have we seen poles that have put the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical dead heat?  This isn’t the first.  

    You Liberals are suffering from some sort of self-reinforcing delusion that the next great red sweep is right around the corner.  

    All this poll result tells me is what I already knew, that about one-third of the declared support out there is soft support, and neither the Liberal’s or Conservative’s own that block of voters.  This group of people fluctuates and changes their support based on whatever is commanding the front page news in any given moment.

    I know a guy who was bitching about how he wasn’t going to vote for Harper because he didn’t support the Afghanistan mission, and then when the tax cuts came, he said he was "actually really surprised Harper was doing a good job".  Now the same guy is convinced that Harper is somehow linked to this Mulroney-Shreiber affair. 

    That’s a sample of the demographic that is fluctuating between the Liberal’s and Conservative’s.  It’s hardly a demographic for either party to stake a lot of hope in making it part of it’s base.

  • Actually, Mike, the Liberals went up to 48% in the Maritimes – not exactly a suburb of the GTA – in this poll, and they are a respectable 31% in "the West" – which is the only thing I dont like about SES polls, in that they don’t do more individual provincial polling.

    The Cons. need to gain amongst urban, young and female voters, and they have failed (and will continue to fail) to do that.

  • ALW

    Um, I recall the exact same line of argument being used – that people just need to "discover" Dion – a month after Dion won the leadership.

    If Liberals want to sleepwalk into the next election thinking Dion is somehow an asset rather than an anchor, hey, that’s your prerogative.

    Besides, it’s hard to get to know a guy when he’s tripping over his tongue half the time.

  • So the Liberal’s and Conservative’s are back in a statistical dead heat.  This is about as interesting as a knowing I’m wearing blue boxer shorts.  We’ve seen this ebb and flow of the polls play out in cycles ever since the Sponsorship Scanadal. 

    Analyzing the polls closely doesn’t really reveal much in the way of good news for the Liberal’s.  The Liberal Party can’t get out of it’s rut anymore than the Conservative Party can.  And virtually all the Liberal support is focused in Ontario.  The Conservative’s fell drastically in Ontario, but they didn’t fall across the rest of Canada. 

    That shows that the "Liberal brand" is meaningful in the Greater Toronto Area. 

    If you want to read between the lines, I don’t see any silver lining in that.  It just backs up what the rest of Canada already believes:  The GTA and Liberal Party are joined at the hip.  This regional concentration of votes for the Conservatives in the West (and increasingly in Quebec) with the Liberal support in the Toronto-area is only going to garner more us versus them resentment, and guarantee we see mostly minority governments for a long time.

  • 900ft jesus

    Walkswithcoffee – I agree completely.  Stevie has nothing new to offer and troubles and scandles are ripping his party’s seams as well.  The media will have a chance to discover Dion, and they love that.

  • Walkswithcoffee

    "But once an election hits, guess who is going to be front and centre 24/7?  It ain’t the brand.  It’s Stephane Dion."

    The CPoC attack machine has set expectations for Mr. Dion so low that went he fights back, the public will see a man with heart. The attack machine also believes that the public will share their dislike for French people. However, voters (particularly Ontario voters) like the French and like to see the beat up stand up and fight again. The CPoC attack machine started a year too early and hte public will not buy it, particularly when they get a real look at Mr. Dion. Mr. Dion’s party at 34% has no where to go but up and Mr. Harper at 35% has no where to go but down – given Harper’s team has done their worse and they can do no better than a tie.

  • ALW

    Crying? Who’s crying?

    You are right that the Liberal brand is strong.  It’s the party’s key asset.

    But once an election hits, guess who is going to be front and centre 24/7?  It ain’t the brand.  It’s Stephane Dion.

    Have fun with that!

  • Annie,

    According to SES, Dion’s numbers are so low that they can really only go up… by how much and when remains to be seen.  Harper’s popularity has risen but his party’s numbers sure haven’t.

    That, as I’ve already pointed out, should scare the hell out of Conservatives who are tied in the polls with the Liberals. 

  • Walkswithcoffee

    Think about this Scott, for three years you have earned nearly nothing and spent your life bringing free attention to the BTs. You have been scammed to their gain and it has cost you nearly three years of your life. You have been used with nothing to show for it.

    Now is the time to acknowledge to yourself what scams cost – you know it in your own life. The cost has been way to high – both to you and the electionate who were being fed BS. Time to bet beyond their scam and stop serving it. Let the scam go so it costs you no more.

  • Nik  Nanos said that Dion himself is low in popularity as far as who would make the  best Prime Minister. It is the Liberal party that is doing well.

  • Walkswithcoffee

    Scott, you have barked for three years: go look at the BTs – leading people to the BTs.  Now you know they are a CPoC propaganda scam (and that I was 100% telling you the truth).  But you keep telling people to go and pay attention to the scam.

    Naturally, we all get scammed by something sometime in our lives, that is understandable. But now that you know the BTs are a scam, stop trumpeting to everyone to go and pay attention to the scam (nearly all the time in your case) .  They are just using you.

    Barking, "look look see what the BTs are doing" serves only them and makes you look like the dubed guy that will not learn from his mistake. You are serving them by barking freely for them.

  • Walks:  As I said, if you don’t like the style, blog about it yourself in the way you wish to see it blogged.

  • Joseph

    I do find it interesting that the dates of this poll were Nov 6 – 8.  Just interesting that it has all fallen prior to Harper’s reverse course on Friday.  Did the money they are sinking into internal polls tell them something?
    Plus, would be curious to see what the recent events will mean.
    And, yet, having said that.  What I really want is for the focus to return to getting things done in parliament.  Real things.  Canada needs a productive parliament.

  • Walkswithcoffee

    Nicely noted, but why the reference to the BTs. Who cares what the Harper-propaganda scam has to say about itself? Focus on the real story and the facts from "the real world".

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