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Libs and Cons deadlocked in new Decima Poll. Will Chantal Hebert mention it?

Apparently, according to some readers, I only bring up polls I like on this blog. First off, I’ll mention that Angus Reid released an (online) poll for the Toronto Star the past couple of days that showed the Cons. up by 10 over the Liberals, had the NDP near 20%, and which seemingly put Chantal Hebert into overdrive mode at the Star in her op-ed columns claiming this poll showed that the Liberals and Dion were dead in Quebec; she was already doing this after the CROP/La Presse poll came out earlier that had the Liberals down by 10 to the Cons. and BQ in Quebec.

This was done a week or so after another column where she played down other polls which showed Conservative strength much lower in Quebec and had her arguing those polls didn’t match what was heard and seen on the ground (which curiously enough, is what Antonio over at Fuddle-Duddle has been claiming as well to me as well – coincidence?). So, I’ll be very interested to see if the new Harris-Decima poll gets mentioned by her – or others – that shows another polling deadlock:

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.The NDP have 13 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and the Bloc is at nine per cent...In Quebec, the latest poll suggested 37 per cent support for the Bloc, 21 per cent each for the Conservatives and Liberals, 10 per cent for the Greens and nine per cent for the NDP. In Ontario, the survey suggested the Liberals are at 38 per cent with the Tories at 33 per cent. The Green party has 15 per cent, leading the NDP at 10 per cent.

This is also interesting analysis that I wonder if Chantal or any of the other pundits will bother talking about – worrying trends for the Cons.

“The most recent cause for concern is among older voters,” he said. “Among those over 50, the Conservatives have seen a 12-per-cent lead over the Liberals in November-December completely evaporate…He said the Tories also have a problem with soft and second preferences. Among decided voters, the Conservatives had a 12-point edge in November. That has shrunk to two per cent. Among voters leaning to a party, the Tories and Liberals were competitive for much of the last year, but the Liberals now lead by 12 points…

Not very good news for the NDP either, and a slow recovery of the Liberal brand, with firming up of Green support:

“There’s a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservatives, waning interest in the NDP and a firming of support for the Green party,” he said. “The Liberal brand is slowly, but perceptibly recovering from the trauma of the sponsorship scandal. “NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic.”

But again, let’s see how many pundits or talking heads actually report this poll or its conclusions – Chantal Hebert in particular.

UPDATE: A slightly different take on it by Steve, but overall agreement the Liberals have some potential to move up. Hopefully, no one takes him to task for putting a question mark in his title like my previous blogentry was over polling results (looks at Mr. Ross).

UPDATE 2: Matt Guerin, who also has been taking exception to Ms. Hebert’s analysis, says more or less the same thing I do, except he also aims his cross hairs at the gang on CTV’s Question Period. Let’s also see in addition to Chantal, if Conservative Television Network and Conservative shills Bob Fife and Mike Duffy mention this poll.

9 comments to Libs and Cons deadlocked in new Decima Poll. Will Chantal Hebert mention it?

  • It’s been rumoured that Chantal went into a deep, dark funk when she heard that Big Blob Blogger was carrying Stevie’s love blob.  So, no.

  • Ted

    Were neck and neck, so lets go to the polls. Will Dion stand up to the immigration bill? Or is it huff and puff and wimper away?
    I think every one knows the answer.

  • Northern PoV

    Most of the pundits are pleasing their masters with Chantal-Herbert-like views of our guy.
    This one is much more fair, and hurts all the more.
    http://forums.macleans.ca/advansis/?mod=for&act=dis&eid=62
     

  • me dere robert

    Bob Fife hasn’t been pro-conservative, lately anyway.  He’s been pretty easy on the Liberals. Jane Taber on the other hand…

  • Rick

    ALW speaks some sense.
    I mentioned this over at FarnWide as well, but I always laugh at people who pick and choose the polls they like based on results. The regionals on a national poll cannot be trusted when they have margins of error above 5.  CROP does a poll of 1000 just in QC, and have a margin of error of 3%, yet people actually believe Decima has a better read on QC than CROP?  I always measure any polls released around a CROP poll by the CROP test – if they match or are within the CROP margin of error for QC, then the poll is valid.  Decima is 8 points below CROP on Tory support, and 7 points too high on BQ support.   Therefore, the poll is not valid.
     

  • ALW

    Why does everyone think these two polls can’t both be right? They can be. If actual support levels are:
    Conservative 35
    Liberal 29
    NDP 15
    Green 11
    Bloc 9
    …then the Decima poll and the Angus-Reid poll are both within their stated 3.1% margins. So they’re both right.
    The biggest mistake that everyone seems to make – Liberal, Tory, positive, negative – is confusing shifts of less than 3 points as a trend, or even shifts of 6 points as a “big shift”. A shift of 6 points could actually be no shift at all! It all depends where in the margin of error the shift occurs.
    Note that I’m not defending Chantal Hebert’s excitement here. But it’s also the reason you don’t see me raving about a poll showing the Tories “up 5%”.
    Lastly, I don’t even know why most people bother with the subregional analysis, unless the sample size is increased dramatically. If you look at the regional error margins they are usually 6-7% or more - meaning again, “movement” of 10% or 12% could actually be no movement at all (this explains why the regional breakdowns are always way more dramatc in their shifts)
    My point, as usual, is that anyone that spends an inordinate amount of time getting excited or depressed by polls is just being foolish.

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  • Loraine Lamontagne

    She won’t mention it - but will she mention Blackburn?

  • Duffy ain’t gonna mention it any time soon I’m sure. First Hebert will have to write about how great the Cons are on offering nationhood to Quebec, and declare dead in the water again. Then she’ll ignore this poll.

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