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People in PA aren’t “bitter” at Obama…

…at least not yet, and at least not in this newly released poll from Quinnipac, which shows that Clinton’s lead on Obama from their last poll remains unchanged at 50-44.

Ironically, it might not be Pennslyvania where Obama’s comments hurt him – but in Indiana. A new poll there shows that Clinton has increased her lead from 11 to 16. That being said, a loss in Indiana won’t really hurt Obama all that much, particularly when it’s cancelled out by Obama’s sizable lead in North Carolina, which is unchanged.

My take on this remains the same. This is a totally overblown comment that will affect the race minimally – particularly when this analysis of PA delegate totals shows Clinton is hardly going to make a dent in Obama’s lead in delegates.

7 comments to People in PA aren’t “bitter” at Obama…

  • I guess my point, the trend was for Obama, which I posted on last week. This seems to have killed that, with some slight pullback. Lots of time left, this debate will be key.

    BTW, I was watching CNN and the frame seems to be whether Clinton can do as well as she did in neighboring states, Ohio and New Jersey, where she won both with identical margins- 10%. If that is the bar, it is actually pretty good news for Obama, because something less than that is clearly doable.

    BTW II, I did see a LA Times poll today that had Obama leading in Indiana 40-35, which is a first.

  • Check this out Steve – no major trend toward Clinton. The polls are at best mixed.

  • Me again 😉 One thing about this goalpost notion, the playing field has changed somewhat. Obama is outspending Clinton 4 to 1 in advertising for Penn, which is a remarkable advantage, no matter your preference. In pushing so hard for Penn, Obama has raised expectations somewhat, which means anything less than a close result is a perceived loss. You can’t just discount that advantage, it is key in a big state like Penn, it reminds me of Romney, huge expenditures.

    Anyways, I’m not saying it won’t be close, I suspect a few more twists in the coming days. This could still easily go Obama’s way, but this controversy has clearly killed his momentum, maybe even some pullback.

  • Just to throw something else into the mix, Rasmussen had it Clinton by 5 in Penn last week, today it is Clinton plus 9.

  • Moving the goalposts? A 10 point win isn’t significant, in a key state? Scott, you’re the one trying to frame anything less than a 20 point victory as nothing really. Put all the spin aside, a win in the 8-10 point range is a convincing result, by any definition, and it will be reported as such.

    40% of super delegates are on the sidelines, and if you look at the past couple weeks, less and less are committing, not more. Don’t expect that to change if Clinton wins Penn, in convincing fashion, at the very least people will wait until North Carolina.

    I’ve never changed the goalposts, feel free to look at every comment I’ve ever made on Penn. I said a close victory isn’t enough for Clinton, she needs a big victory. 8-10 points is big, it just is, especially for somebody with no chance.

  • We already discussed the ARG poll here in comments.. I was showing that a more reliable pollster showed no change in the race.

    As for SurveyUSA.. the poll prior to this one had Clinton up by 18.. so it shows a slight closing of the gap.

    You need to stop doing what Clinton supporters do Steve, and that is moving the goalposts. If Clinton wins by 8-10 points.. that’s 10 points worse then what most observers a couple of weeks ago said she had to do minimum to put any dent in this delegate race… now all of a sudden if she wins by 8-10 points, thats some great victory?

    I disagree that an 8-10 point win is somehow going to keep the race going. I think you’re going to see some supers moving to Obama.

  • Scott

    To be fair, shouldn’t you include the ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 20 points? The same outfit had it tied last week. I’m not a huge fan, but it is noteworthy change.

    Also, there is a Survey USA poll out, which has the best record of anyone (http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/), giving Clinton a 14 point lead in Penn.

    There is another link, which shows Clinton widening her lead slightly:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

    Whatever momentum Obama had, and I think he did, seems to have stopped. If Clinton can win by 8-10 points, it represents a big enough victory to carry on, enough to keep the questions in the air, the remaining super delegates on the sidelines.

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