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The road to the White House for Obama is easier then McCain.

I read this interesting bit at Daily Kos from Kos himself, discussing how Obama can win the White House even if he loses Florida and Ohio, an Achilles heel for the prior 2 Democratic candidates, Gore and Kerry:

Without Florida and Ohio, and keeping all the Kerry states (252 EV – ed), all Obama has to do to win is win 18 more Electoral Votes. He currently leads in these states:

Virginia (13)
Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Montana (3)

Obama trails narrowly in:

Nevada (5)
North Dakota (3)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)

So there’s plenty of combinations that would get Obama to 270 without Ohio and Florida.

Kos is using Pollster.com if you’re wondering where he’s getting his numbers from. Pollster weights polls from different polling organizations and this helps formulate their “trend line” for each state. The above quotation by Kos of those different electoral votes where Obama is either leading or narrowly trailing, and the fact that in individual polls, he has been leading Ohio and, shockingly, Florida, is why I hold the view that barring a major faux pas, Obama is not only going to win the Presidency, but do it quite comfortably with well over 300 Electoral Votes.

3 comments to The road to the White House for Obama is easier then McCain.

  • Of the states you listed, all of them have at least 10% undecided voters and only Iowa and New Mexico have been in the Democratic column all along.

    That would give Obama Al Gore’s 2000 map, plus New Hampshire (which would have been enough in 2000, but thanks to demographics, is not enough in 2008)

  • “why I hold the view that barring a major faux pas, Obama is not only going to win the Presidency, but do it quite comfortably with well over 300 Electoral Votes.”

    How anyone can hold that view, based on July polls is beyond me. Get off the Kos!

    And, Devin makes a good observation. It’s happened many times before. Wasn’t Kerry up by 12% this time last election?

  • My only concern for Obama is that he is peaking too early.

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