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Sarah Palin a “game-changer”…for the Democrats.

So my blogging colleague Antonio over from Fuddle-Duddle has been trying to tell me how much of a game changer this Sarah Palin pick would be for McCain and the Republicans.  He never expressly said it would help the Republicans and McCain win the Presidential election, but I got the feeling he believed it was a positive for the McCain campaign.

There is no doubt from what I’ve seen that she does excite the Republican wingnuts base, and why wouldn’t she? She’s anti-abortion, she’s for teaching creationism in schools alongside evolution in science class, she’s pro-oil drilling and anti-environment, she’s for teaching abstinence-only to teenagers and not safe-sex courses. Your prototypical right-wing social conservative Republican, in otherwards.

The problem is though that the pick may not do much for them if it motivates the Democrats even more, as well as turn off the independent voters… and that appears initially to be happening. We have had 5 national polls released since her pick.  Four of those polls show a WIDENING of Obama’s lead,  to outside of the Margin Of Error. I’ve said before that I think regional polling and what those overall effects on the electoral college are a lot more important then the national polling #’s, since the President isn’t picked on national popular vote, but like it or not, national polls drive the media narrative down there as much as they do here in Canada, and the narrative coming out is this pick has failed to so far connect with anyone beyond the Republican core voters.

One of the reasons for Palin’s pick turning out to be a bit of a train wreck is with all the negative stories that have come out on her at the same time. Other voters apparently see it as a stunt or a gimmick. Some people are even speculating that she might be forced to resign from the pick because of all this controversy. Personally I doubt it will come to that as it will enrage the same Republican wingnuts base that McCain needs if he has any hope of winning.

So while the Palin pick may be a game-changer, it may not be for the Republicans or McCain – at least not in the positive sense.

UPDATE: A hilarious picture from Talking Points Memo, on their view of the Palin impending train-wreck.

Going Off The Rails

UPDATE 2 @3:25pm: A couple more national polls that show an expanding lead for Obama.

UPDATE 3 @4:48 pm: Paul Wells calls this whole sordid episode a gong-show. That might be underestimating the furore surrounding the pick. But remember, the Republican wingnuts base love her!

8 comments to Sarah Palin a “game-changer”…for the Democrats.

  • I believe the reaction proves the Palin pick has been a game-changer.

    One has to only look how the left is falling over themselves.

    The Kos-Aid drinkers like Scott are overjoyed, but with a republican convention to come, some have to wonder why Barack Obama hasnt run away with this already.

    Maybe the people liked what Obama had to say but arent interested in his policies.

    Hard to “change Washington” when all your promises give it much more power.

  • Joseph

    This is a good post, Scott.

    And the hits keep coming . . . thought you’d enjoy the video clip of Palin addressing her congregation on what God is wanting these days . . .

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html

    basically a holy war of course. Oh, and an oil pipeline for good measure. You know the usual stuff : )

    My first impression was that the choice was foolish and insulting. And my impression despite the hullabaloo was that it would ultimately hurt McCain.

    I’m now thinking she may not make it through the week before stepping down.

  • Maybe this is McCain’s way of getting his buddy Joe in the race. He can swoop in as the “safe” alternative after Palin crashes and burns. Just a theory. I doubt he’s that conniving. Or clever.

  • KC

    We’ll have to see where this Alaskan Independence Party stuff goes. Sure shes a conservative wingnut like the rest of the GOP but Americans have seen fit to elect one Republican President after another.

    But being a member of an organization that favours the dividing the “indivisible” United States? I cant see them standing for that.

  • wilson

    There is no longer a Reform Party.
    Which party does Obama fit into best?
    where Obama stands:
    anti-same sex marriage
    pro-restricted abortions
    pro-2 tier healthcare

  • Joseph

    Annie raises an excellent point!

    Palin apparently has an affinity for the Alaskan Independence Party, which has mused about leaving the US. They have even speculated, apparently, with linking up with Canada although they seem to indicate just western Canada so guess maybe they are thinking of creating “Albertastan” or something out of pieces and parts of western Canada and Alaska. I guess they figure Vancouver would be orphaned off to Washington State, or at least I hope since its my home.

    So with all this in mind, could Palin become the ultimate parachute candidate by running in some plucky ex-urb in Western Canada?

    Of course, if I were Harper, I’d be a little concerned about Ol” Barracuda going after the top job before too long.

  • Palin would fit right in with the Canadian Reform party and Harper

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