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Nanos Poll: Gap narrows to 6 points, Liberals release new ad.

There are a lot of polls out there. You also have a lot of newspapers declaring this and that over their particular poll they’ve sponsored without mentioning a thing about other polls that may contradict their specific pollster’s narrative. See the doom and gloom predictions of the Toronto Star and Jim Travers in this past Saturday edition for evidence of that.

Well, Nanos has come out with their tracking poll today, and it shows a tightening of the race down to 6 points between the Liberals and the Cons, down from 8 points the past 2 days. Note also the big undecided vote in that poll – this election is still in play, despite what some in the media would have you think. Decima is still showing a good lead for the Cons, but their poll is also trending well for the Liberals (they have gained back 6 points against the Cons in the past 2 Decima polls), and as BigCityLib and Steve say, the Conservatives policies and such may be coming under greater scrutiny now by the electorate… and the warm and fuzzy sweater ads may be wearing off.

With all that said, the timing of this new ad below to be played in the English language market by the Liberals is well-timed, in my view. It’s a little harder in tone, which I think is going to be necessary, but exudes a positive frame at the end.  Keep hitting them where it hurts, as Warren K. opines today, and don’t be afraid to hit hard.

UPDATE @ 3:52 pm: Warren approves of the new ad.

5 comments to Nanos Poll: Gap narrows to 6 points, Liberals release new ad.

  • ted

    I love negative ads. This ad is too soft.
    If the Liberals want to win they have to hit harder. The problem they have is Dion, he comes across as a softie.

    Re. Nanos
    Any Harper win is fine by me. It probably be another Conservative minority, a reduced minority would even bode well since Dion would then want to hang on, and the Liberals will go into internal desention.

  • Green Assassin Brigade

    good ad with a balance of attack and happy fuzzy and fortunately no picture or voice of Dion to spook the voters.

  • Blackstar

    Good post, great ad! Koby, I love your point you just made. Hope that gets widely disseminated. I intend to email that slate article to family later. Is it alright if I borrow your comparisons?

    Scott – I noticed this past week that Harper and even Layton, continuously use the phrase ‘carbon tax’. There is always purpose in their word choice and i think that this is to distract from the tax cut / shift idea, creating the false impression of a tax hike where there is none. I also think the clever use of carbon distracts from the more clearcut word choice, which in my view is pollution. This is the word I hear Dion using too – pollution. Anyone with any knowledge on our climate change problems, knows that this is mainly about carbon but there are plenty of equally dangerous culprits being emitted and they must all go. To reduce it to just carbon, which is still, unbelievably, but still, a relatively neutral term, is just as disingenuous, but very clever way of manipulating the public mind. Somewhat akin to the rightwing deployment of the term ‘global warming’ when in fact, the trouble is clearly climate changing and not for the better.
    I guess I wish that Liberals could follow the leader and drop the carbon tax terminology in favour of our leaders word choice, which is pollution.

    My two cents for the day. Best of luck to all of those fighting the good fight, keep it up!

  • It’s a good ad. The V/O is tough without being nasty or sophomoric, the criticisms hit on Harper’s weaknesses, it has that incredible “don’t invest in Ontario” line, subtly reminds people of his political style with that “divide and conquer” line, and it focuses on the broad Liberal tax cuts that Harper has been so desperately trying to distract from.

    (Good background imagery too.)

    As for the “BUT WHERE’S DION” lines… he doesn’t even need to be there. Dion’s overwhelming strength is on the environment. Any ad that brings up the environment in people’s mind helps him. That’s why Harper and Layton didn’t want May in that debate; as long as the environment remains salient, Dion’s best strength remains visible. The weaknesses can be fixed, but you should get that strength out there.

  • Speaking of hitting hard this is just the kind of headline the Liberals need to get around. “What’s the Matter With Canada? How the world’s nicest country turned mean.”

    http://www.slate.com/id/2199929/

    Compare “What’s the Matter With Canada? How the world’s nicest country turned mean”

    With 2003/ 2004 headlines

    Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “It’s not just the weather that’s cooler in Canada”

    San Jose Mercury: “Think Canada Could Use One More Province?”

    New Yorker: “Northern Light”

    Washington Post: “Whoa! Canada!

    The Spectator (UK) “Land of the free”

    Economist “”Indeed, a cautious case can be made that Canada is now rather cool.”

    USA Today: “Canadians’ pride is back – in a big, neighborly way”

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