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Nanos repeats 5 point Cons lead on Liberals today.

Another day, and yet another Nanos poll showing still a slim 5 point Conservative lead over the Liberals.

Nik Nanos assessment:

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc.

The Cons have also slipped into 3rd place into Atlantic Canada (within the MOE) in this new tracking poll as well, I should note.

Right now, the Conservative supporters are screaming “outlier!” on the Nanos poll, and it’s getting ignored by the pundits for their own polls which shows more sizable Conservative leads. Perhaps it is the outlier, but Ottlib makes a good point at their blog – a lot of the parties statements don’t jive with this being a non-race at this point:

According to all of the polls except Nanos the Liberals are toast. They are done, history. Yet today we had Mr. Harper pandering to his base with a silly crime and punishment announcement, Mr. Rae telling voters that we have to end vote splitting on the left to beat the Conservatives, and Mr. Layton stating that he would be willing to form a coalition with the Liberals.

So, Mr. Harper, why are you pandering to your base? You apparently have this election in the bag. You should be talking to everybody but your base at this point to push you over the top to a majority.

Mr. Rae, why are you even talking about a Liberal victory at all? Mr. Duffy et. al. says the Liberals are done so you should not be talking about actually winning this thing. You should instead be plotting strategy for the leadership convention to replace Mr. Dion. C’mon, get with the program!

Mr. Layton, why are you talking about a coalition? According to Peter Donolo and Bruce Anderson you are going to be fighting for second place in this election. You are on the cusp of making the NDP the Official Opposition. Now is not the time to talk coalition. You should be fighting to put yourself over that hump.

At this time in the election campaign there is a massive disconnect with what the media is telling us about it and how the various campaigns are pursuing their respective campaigns. None of them are acting as if the Liberals are way down and possibly facing third party status. Although things can change in a heartbeat during an election campaign the actions of the various parties seems to indicate that this thing is alot closer than we are being lead to believe.

If these numbers were to hold, you’d not see much difference in the current house then you would now.. which is why I was pleased to see this transcript of what Jack Layton said this morning on Canada AM:

Seamus: AS YOU SAID, YOU KNOW YOU’RE TARGETING– NO DIFFERENT BETWEEN THESE TWO OLD PARTIES. YOU ARE TARGETING THE CONSERVATIVES. YOU SAID WE CANNOT HAVE MORE OF THIS KIND OF GOVERNMENT. DO YOU BELIEVE SO STRONGLY IN THAT THAT YOU WOULD ENTERTAIN EVEN THE NOTION OF ENTERING A COALITION WITH THE LIBERALS IN ORDER TO KEEP THE CONSERVATIVES OUT OF PARTY?

Hon. Jack Layton: I HAVE WORKED WITH ANY OTHER PARTY. MAYBE IT GOES BACK TO MY DAYS ON MUNICIPAL COUNCIL. YOU ROLE UP YOUR SLEEVES AND YOU TRY TO SOLVE A PROBLEM. RIGHT NOW THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS STEPHEN HARPER AND HIS CONSERVATIVES. THEY ARE TAKING THE COUNTRY DOWN THE WRONG PATH. THEY ARE MUCH TOO CLOSE TO GEORGE BUSH-STYLE FOREIGN POLICY WHEN IT COMES TO THE WAR IN MY VIEW.

Seamus: IF YOU ADDED UP THE SEATS THAT YOU COULD GAIN AND THE THE SEATS THAT THE LIBERALS– THAT OUTNUMBERED THE CONSERVATIVES, WOULD YOU CONSIDER A COALITION?

Hon. Jack Layton: HOPEFULLY I’LL SIT DOWN IN THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE AND PULL TOGETHER THE LEADERSHIP OF MY PARTY AND SAY HOW CAN WE BEST GET THAT CHILD CARE PROGRAM THAT WE COMMITTED TO? HOW CAN WE GET THE DOCTORS AND NURSES DRAINED AND DEAL WITH THESE WAIT TIMES?

Seamus: BY WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY.

Hon. Jack Layton: LET’S MAKE IT HAPPEN.

I’m pleased to hear he’s willing to support the Liberals in a coalition government to take down the Conservative Party (H/T: APOV for the CTV story). I’ve also heard Gilles Duceppes say he’d prefer a Liberal government as well. A Grand Coalition forming perhaps? The ABC movement (Anyone But Conservatives) being taken to heart by the opposition parties? Jack Layton admitting the only way to stop the Harperites is to work with the Liberals instead of tearing at them as he has the past couple of years and support a Dion-led government? Interesting times, folks.

I’ll repeat what I said yesterday: Canada’s most accurate pollster in 2006 and in the Ontario election of 2007 has said this election is far from over.. and the parties are certainly also acting as that to be also the case.

8 comments to Nanos repeats 5 point Cons lead on Liberals today.

  • A non-emu's opinion

    Ottlib is off some.
    Layton is talking about coalition to soothe NDP voters who might be thinking of strategic voting. If they think there’s a chance that the NDP will form a coalition government to beat Harper, then they’ll feel more secure keeping their votes with the NDP. (Of course, doing so may well mean it splits the votes enough that both parties lose seats and the conservatives achieve their majority)

    Rae is still playing for leadership, but he knows as well as any of the party brass that if the Liberals go into a heavily contested leadership race after this election, it’ll essentially bankrupt the party and probaly consign the party to the political wilderness for the next 8-10 years or so well beyond when he wants to get in. His best bet is to get Dion in with a slightly reduced minority.. but not to let the party sink too far. Plus, now if the party does well, he can claim credit for swaying NDP voters over.

    As for Harper, he’s playing to his base right now because they’re starting to wake up and examine the Harper record to realize that he hasn’t been that conservative after all. (Talking point, be sure whenever you speak to conservative supporters to remind them that Harper’s government increased spending faster than any government in history, and in the process of doing so, cancelled first a fleet of ice-capable defense ships, and then later cancelled the coastal supply ships) Harper’s base is getting restless, and he really needs to reassure them. For Harper, getting a minority isn’t enough. After the past couple years, even if he gets a larger minority (and there’s really not a lot of room for him to get a smaller one) he could still be in trouble if the Liberals manage to gain a few seats — one of the problems with painting Dion as a weak leader for the past 2.5 years means that if Dion does better than expected, that leaves the conservative faithful questioning their own leader’s ability.

    Not to mention, Harper has to have his base happy with him, because he knows as well as we do that the economy is about to go pear shaped. I think he was hoping it wouldn’t happen until after the Conservative convention in November, but he might have misjudged how fast it’d progress.

  • Nanos is an outlier. Thing is, he was an outlier in 2006, too. But he was right. Assuming he doesn’t have a Zogby-style flameout, it’s still the one to watch.

    Unfortunately, since daily tracking polls are pretty much universal, I wonder how much it will matter. Daily polls only really affect media coverage. And if the media is covering this as if the Liberals are far, far down, then won’t that be a problem in-and-of itself?

  • Ted

    @red

    Harper is safe, even in a Conservative minority.
    The knives are out for Dion, unless he gets more seats then Harper.

  • Red and Proud

    @Ted
    If all Harper wins is the same minority he’ll be out the door a lot faster than Dion. The Cons want a majority; since this will be the third strike for Harper (loss in 2004, minorities in 2006 and 2008), he’s gone.

  • I didn’t hear “willing to form a coalition government.” I heard “refusing to rule it out.” Which I suppose is a start.

    I’d love to hear the same thing from Dion, now. Because if the two parties signal a willingness to consider a coalition post-election, it won’t matter nearly so much if those two parties take votes from each other.

  • Ted

    If Harper wins the same minority (+,-,5). Dion will hang on as party leader. Do you really want this outcome all you Liberals? Your party would be in kaos.
    The best scenario for the Liberals would be a Harper increased minority (10-20). Dion would step down and a new leader could fight the next election in two years.

  • Scott… From what I read, Mr. Layton said he’s not closing the door on having a coalition, not saying that he would support a Dion-led government. This is a two-way street, and the way I read it, maybe he’s suggesting a Layton-led government with Liberal support. Is that something that Liberals would get behind??? A fair question.

  • Haha – you are in complete denial, Scott. Nanos Research has the most accurate polling, but the Liberals under Dion are heading for the ditch in this election. Now that Dion has thrown the Green Shift unde the Liberal bus, what is he doing to do for an encore? What’s going to happen on election night when the Liberals lose seats and the Conservatives roll up a majority government? How will Dion justify his leadership then? How are you going to spin this?

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