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The ebb and flow of daily tracking polls.

So, NANOS did a bit of a plunge for those of us who believe Harper and his Conservatives are a blight on this land that need removing from government. We went from a 5 point deficit to an 11 point one. Of course, those who’ve been dismissing the NANOS close polling the last 2 days as outliers are instantly crowing about it now that if favours them – not unexpected. But, on last Friday, the Nanos Poll also had an 11 point lead for the Cons and then quickly fell to 5 over the weekend and held for a couple of days before this rise. I’m not particularly ready to jump off any bridges just yet, and since we haven’t had an election yet to count the final results, there’s no crow to be eaten by me at this point – sorry to disappoint those who would demand otherwise.

The fact of the matter is that in this poll.. the numbers moved up mainly because of a rather dramatic 17 point swing in the Maritimes – where the Liberals went from leading by 9 to trailing by 8. We’ll see if that trend holds in the next day or 2. In the meantime, on with the campaign. And remember, never crow or taunt too early in an election campaign. It may come back to bite you.

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5 comments to The ebb and flow of daily tracking polls.

  • Fast Eddie

    You live by polls, you die by polls.

  • Ted

    Scott, your too married to Nanos.
    CBC and CPAC both have Harper at a dozon or so lead. I like polls that are replicated by other polls.
    Honestly, it does not look good for Dion.
    I know all you out there hate Harper, but a lot of taxpayers like me like him, and that irritates the Canadian left.

  • MississaugaPeter

    The oil patch, I mean Conservatives, must be shaking in their cowboy boots…

    Last time around, with 2 weeks to go (January 14-16, 2006), it was

    CPC 42%, Lib 24%, NDP 17%, Bloc 12% Green 5%

    http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/
    our_news/polls/2006-01-17GMCTV
    %20Jan%2014-16Poll(Jan17).pdf

    Effective War Room, Great Ground Game, Excellent Debate Peformance – 3 Elements to End the Harper Experiment.

  • I cannot believe how many people are gullible when Harper tells all the lies..I will tell you how good it is. A lady running in my riding for the Liberals, met a woman on the street. The woman said she would vote Liberal, but is voting Conservative this time …. because the Liberals are taking away our Child Care and she told the lady it was a lie..I only hope she convinced her.

  • ALW

    …except I’m not the one who’s been taunting, Scott.

    And if you were smart, you’d point out that the movement is within the margin of error, which it is – including the Atlantic numbers. So in fact there could’ve been no movement at all yesterday!

    Of course, if you did that, you couldn’t write those masturbatory posts about how swell things are going for the Grits when the polls go 1 point the other way.

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