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I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?

Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20,  Green 15

I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties.  So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” and 9% said “somewhat likely”.

The next question asks if they knew the Conservatives would win a majority government, would they change their vote to try and stop it, and 30% of Greens voters said they would (though I question the poll’s wording here, as one can never truly KNOW about voting night). Of course, if the polls stay the same, and it appears there is a minority government of whatever stripe,  the likelihood of them changing their vote is even more remote.

Oh, and as with other polls, Ekos also shows a narrowing down to 7% between the Cons and the Liberals, the lowest margin they’ve had since the election writ was dropped. As with Decima and Nanos, they show the Cons dropping into the teens in Quebec.

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5 comments to I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

  • voteMayelectMacKay, it’s your kind of vote splitting effort that will end up electing Peter MacKay. It’s not completely your fault, since Layton and the local NDP are really the one to blame for bothering to run. If you watch national news like most Canadians, you’re more likely to vote for a celebrity like May than a new NDP candidate you’ve never heard of. If you’re really interested in beating Stephen Harper, you’d vote for May in Central Nova.

  • reduxitnb

    ” … since the election writ was dropped.”

    … since the phrase “drop the writ” is really a contraction of “draw up the writ”, your sentence should have read ” … since the election writ was ‘drawn up’.”

  • voteMayelectMacKay

    I live in Central Nova. Peter MacKay gets elected if the Liberals vote Green. If the Liberals support the NDP, the NDP wins. Two fo the five provincial ridings are held by NDP and the NDP came second in the other three. People here feel honored to have a big celebrity like May come for a side show but we take our politic more seriously than that.
    Liberals here will vote NDP to unseat MacKay but also to have a better chance at knocking off the NDP incumbant next time. They know that if they help elect MacKay by voting Green he survives and will be stronger than ever.

  • As the Conservative vote goes down, the Green vote will go up, not even because they are taking directly from Conservative votes, but because more people will be comfortable supporting a party with slim odds if the Harper majority is no longer a threat.

  • One thing about this poll, and even moreso in the Strategic Counsel battleground poll, the Liberal vote is firm, relative to the NDP and Greens. The NDP vote looks quite fertile in the SC poll, and the Greens are even softer. The Conservatives are falling, and yet their growth potential is still as low, which is strange because as the party numbers fade, you would expect an inverse uptick in potential growth.

    Everyway I look at it, the Libs are the only one with real room, and that is a good spot heading into the final days.

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