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Polls tighten further: Cons lead in Nanos down to 3!

Dare I say it, the Conservatives are in real danger now; forget their hopes for a majority, they are in peril of losing the government altogether, IF the trends hold that Nanos is showing today:

CP 34%, Lib 31%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, GP 6%

Pollster Nik Nanos comments on the new numbers:

The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario – potentially an “echo effect” from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday night’s English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something.

Looking at the regionals, and to show what Nik is talking about, the Liberals have now taken a 9 point lead in Ontario and have reached the 40% mark for the first time in quite awhile. While the Cons have recovered a bit in Quebec, the BQ has amazingly shot up to 46%. There even appears to be mdoest recovery out West for the Liberals.. though where is hard to determine in a regional poll.

By the way, Decima is also showing the race to be closing – they have the Con lead on the Liberals down to 5 points., and they mirror the Liberal resurgence and the Con. drop in Ontario and to a lesser extent in Quebec. The difference with their poll seems to be that they have the Cons in a 1 point MOE (Margin of Error) lead in the Maritimes, while Nanos has the Liberals leading by 6 there.

This is officially a horse race, folks, which as I said at the start shows the Harper government in real danger of losing their governing status – and that’s probably why Harper seemed (to me anyway) so angry and even desperate today at his platform press conference (flip-flopping on the film tax credits for example and now saying he’d cancel that, and threatening in effect to re-open the Constitution and abolish the Senate if he and his party doesn’t get his way on Senate “reform”.

More on the Harper “platform” (if it can be called that) later.

1 comment to Polls tighten further: Cons lead in Nanos down to 3!

  • Good news indeed, but also cause for alarm for us PR advocates. Here’s why:

    With FPTP, you don’t need 50%+1 of the popular vote; you don’t even need to win the popular vote, just a plurality in a majority of districts. The rule of thumb used to be that you needed about 38% of the vote in a race with three viable contenders to have an absolute majority, where a Parliamentary system was in place. Chrétien and Blair, in their respective threepeat wins, both proved it could be done with just 35%.

    But what if these numbers hold up or continue to trend in the direction they appear to be going?

    If the gap is down to three within the margin of error, we could have a situation a week today where someone wins the popular vote but loses the election.

    It’s also plausible a margin outside that of error could have an upside-down result, too. It happened to Trudeau in 1979 where he actually outpolled Clark by about 700,000 votes — 8.5% — but won 22 fewer seats.

    An election with PR would almost certainly ensure the Harper era was dead. FPTP only creates more uncertainty no matter who’s on top, especially if it’s a stolen election.

    Still, we have to deal with what we have right now. I can’t wait for a week today.

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