With FPTP, you don’t need 50%+1 of the popular vote; you don’t even need to win the popular vote, just a plurality in a majority of districts. The rule of thumb used to be that you needed about 38% of the vote in a race with three viable contenders to have an absolute majority, where a Parliamentary system was in place. Chrétien and Blair, in their respective threepeat wins, both proved it could be done with just 35%.

But what if these numbers hold up or continue to trend in the direction they appear to be going?

If the gap is down to three within the margin of error, we could have a situation a week today where someone wins the popular vote but loses the election.

It’s also plausible a margin outside that of error could have an upside-down result, too. It happened to Trudeau in 1979 where he actually outpolled Clark by about 700,000 votes — 8.5% — but won 22 fewer seats.

An election with PR would almost certainly ensure the Harper era was dead. FPTP only creates more uncertainty no matter who’s on top, especially if it’s a stolen election.

Still, we have to deal with what we have right now. I can’t wait for a week today.