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Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

– The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

– The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

– The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

– The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest of Canada is taking a 2nd look at Harper, and bumped his numbers up.

An interesting scenario to watch in the oncoming days is whether the report on the costs of the Afghanistan mission, which has turned out to be much higher then government estimates, and may even be higher then what the figure is, effects the election polling. The Bloc is already trying to make hay out of the report, so watch Quebec in particular in the next 2 days for the BQ (and to a lesser extent the NDP) numbers, and see if they go up and/or the Cons. go down.

(Oh, for those wondering, Decima showed a slight up-tick for the Cons, and they lead by 5. Again, their Quebec numbers will be interesting to watch).

UPDATE: Nik weighs in:

A look at the regional numbers shows a clear division in the views of Canadians. The West, for all intents and purposes, has embraced Stephen Harper and Tory support has improved. While Conservative support in the West has improved, it has declined in all other regions of the country. If this trend continues, my sense is that this election may re-ignite Western discontent and alienation.

A little early to be predicting that in my view, particularly since these #’s if played out would still give the Cons a narrow minority. But hey, democracy is democracy.

1 comment to Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

  • jodster

    How can the Nanos poll show the libs way ahead in Ontario while another poll only has them 4 ahead or behind even? I never know which to believe, but I want to believe that Ontario will elect more liberals. The electionprediction project still has the two parties winning equal seats!

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