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Who do you believe more?

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (and watchdog) Kevin Page, who is predicting that budget deficits are going to be deeper and more long-term then what the Conservative Government is forecasting, or Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who says Page is wrong? I’m not sure it’s that hard of a choice who to believe:

Past warnings from Page have proven accurate. But Flaherty says he’s off-base this time, because the bleak prediction is based on unduly pessimistic economic-growth projections. “He’s wrong,” Flaherty told journalists Saturday in a conference call from the G8 finance ministers’ meeting in Lecce, Italy. “Because he says growth rates likely will be slower than I had predicted. Now, if you make an assumption with respect to lower growth rates, then you get the results that he postulates. “But anybody can do that.” .. However, since the last election campaign, the Conservative government’s projections have consistently been rosier than reality. The Tories were promising a balanced budget until the end of the year, then tabled a $34-billion deficit in January and finally ramped up their deficit forecast last month to more than $50 billion. Over that time, Page and several private-sector analysts have repeatedly warned that the books were in worse shape.

The TD Bank’s economic forecasts fall in line with Page’s predictions, which says Flaherty and the government’s predictions are being over-optimistic. Given the track record of the two folks the past year or so, I think I’ll trust Kevin Page.

1 comment to Who do you believe more?

  • All of Flaherty’s current noise is due to the possibility of an election coming.

    Business and voters can no longer trust our government’s economic predictions. That’s bad.

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