It’s a little quiet out there today so far, so let me say I’m also going to place my money on the Guelph riding as being the riding where Green Party leader Elizabeth May will run for Parliament in the next election. There are several factors why this riding would be her best shot at winning;
– Mark Taylor has a list of reasons at his blog (he’s a Green Party supporter).
– Dan Arnold (known better by his CalgaryGrit blog and handle) also put out a list of ridings where Guelph ranked #1 in criteria (though interestingly, Dan figured she’d rather run in the Saanich-Gulf Islands Islands riding – ranked #2 in his list – against Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn).
My own thoughts on the matter would be this: Green Party candidate Mike Nagy did very well there in 2008 – well enough that there was a big worry that enough votes would be drained off by Nagy from the Liberals and Frank Valeriote that the Conservatives under Gloria Kovach would sneak up the middle (which would have been a very depressing result, as Kovach would have been one of the best parroters of Harper rhetoric in the Commons if she’d made it in, but I digress). With an established base of volunteers, a pretty environmentally conscious riding containing a university that is known to be a bit lefty in its political orientation of its students, plus the fact May has shown that she can increase Green votes and turnout substantially in ridings she runs in, Guelph looks to be a good bet for her and the Greens to choose.
Some have made the point (like Dan) about May allying herself with the Liberal Party under Dion, so why would she run against a Liberal incumbent? Her allying with the Liberal Party, however, came under Dion’s leadership, and I’ve gotten the impression May hasn’t exactly been enamored with Ignatieff. I’m basing that on the belief she didn’t like Iggy’s decision not to go forth with the coalition option last January, or more likely Iggy’s seemingly softening Liberal views towards the tarsands. Regardless, if the number 1 goal of the Greens is to now get May elected, then from her strategists point of view, it shouldn’t matter who is the incumbent in whatever riding they choose, if that riding has the most favourable criteria for her to have a shot at winning.
It won’t surprise me at all if that riding chosen is Guelph. In fact, it might surprise me if she doesn’t pick it.
UPDATE @ 5:00 pm: Impolitical opines here – not a bad assessment/argument about why May should try the Gulf-Saanich Islands rather then Guelph.