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Nanos Poll: reaction

My short reaction to the Nanos poll that came out with regional specifics today is as follows:

– While we dropped a bit in Quebec, we don’t see BQ #’s anywhere close to what that Strategic Council Poll had, and the Liberals are still in that 32-33% range. I actually don’t mind those poll numbers; because Liberal support in Quebec is still highly concentrated in the Montreal area, the Liberals would probably have a net pickup of 5-10 seats in and around that area. The NDP has also surprisingly slumped into single digits in the Nanos poll. If that is true, and it confirms that part of the Quebec SC poll (which I am obviously frankly skeptical of), then Thomas Mulclair may have a hard time holding his seat in Outrement, if these numbers were to hold during an election campaign. It will also be interesting to see where the BQ’s poll numbers have actually gone up in Quebec, as well as where the Conservative’s slight rise is taking place; those 10 seats the Cons. hold in the Quebec City area will be a fight between them and the Bloc.

– Personally, as a Liberal supporter, if you were to tell me that we’d be getting a low to mid 30’s percentage of vote in BC on Election Day, as Nanos is showing with this result, I’d tell you I’d take that in a heartbeat.

– I’d prefer a bigger Liberal lead in Ontario, but I’ll take these #’s in the pre-election writ as a good starting point – something for Iggy and the Liberals to work with.

-As has been alluded to at Steve’s blogpost and Kady’s post over at Macleans on this poll, Conservative strength and gains in certain regions of Canada and overall is based almost entirely on gaining votes from the NDP, not the Liberals, which I find a bit odd.

– I also find the big “jump” for the Cons. and the big “slump” for the NDP in the Maritimes to be a bit odd. Note that the MOE (margin of error) here is 12% though, so I think Nik needs to get a higher sample out east to better get a feel for what exactly is going on here.

Bottom Line: It appears polls are going to be very fluid and volatile for the next month. It will be interesting to see once the new Liberal/Ignatieff ads are in solid rotation, whether they affect Liberal polling numbers in the next few weeks, as well as what happens when the government is again on the defensive when Parliament is back in session.

3 comments to Nanos Poll: reaction

  • foottothefire

    Thanks for the perspective/insight, Scott.
    I echo Joseph’s comments, agreeing in part with NPOV. Ignatieff is a brilliant orator; “they” need to ‘let him go’.

  • Joseph

    I don’t quite accept the explanation in the first paragraph of Northern PoV’s comment.

    However, I think the suggestion on how to format the approach to voters (and the media) is excellent.

  • Northern PoV

    Dion’s essential problem was that he could not efectively communicate (ie connect with his audience) in either official language.
    Ironically, Iggy seems to be having the same problem, and the “worldview” ad will not help.

    Lets hope he can find his voice real soon. IMHO, Iggy needs to start stating simple positions, in a point/counter-point fashion.
    Cons trangression
    Libs better approach

    Start with about five of these litanies and expand/vary as the meme catches on.

    The media and public need it real simple to be able to remember.

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