I saw the folks over at CAITI Online post about an Environics poll:
Our Environics poll taken Feb 4 – 9 that was based on 1,000 random telephone calls indicates .. Canadians .. if an election were held today would vote:
Don’t know 17%
Accurate to within +/- 3.1%, 19 out of 20 times
I contacted the folks over at CAITI Online asking for a link to this poll’s raw data, since I didn’t see it at the Environics website. The CAITI folks have been kind enough to send me a table and more information on this poll, which they commissioned Environics to do on their behalf, primarily to find out Canadians reaction to The Marshall Plan, which they believe is a solution to Jim Flaherty’s “income trust policy fiasco”, to quote them.
At the same time, Environics did ask about federal voting intentions. The full poll and raw data I am told will be posted at the Marshall Plan’s website sometime this evening, but here’s a preview of the provincial/regional breakdown of the polling:
Atlantic Canada: Liberals 33%, Conservatives 24%, NDP 16%, Greens 2%
Quebec: Liberals 27%, BQ 27%, Conservatives 11%, NDP 6%, Green 4%
Ontario: Liberals 33%, Conservatives 26%, NDP 9%, Green 7%
Manitoba/Sask: Conservatives 36%, Liberals 22%, NDP 17%, Greens 7%
Alberta: Conservatives 49%, Liberals 22%, Greens 8%, NDP 5%
BC: Conservatives 25%, Liberals 22%, NDP 16%, Greens 14%
I’ll leave other folks better then I at polling analysis to decipher this poll, comparison to other polls, and so on when they take a look at the raw data. If you’d like a look at Environics raw data chart, it can be looked at by clicking on the below link (you’ll need to click the link once, which takes you to a new page, and then once more to either open it with a word processor or to download it).
NOTE: In the poll data, there appears to be some weighted/unweighted results, as well as factoring in leaning undecideds. You’ll note in a different data chart these results nationally on federal voting intentions:
BQ 8% (36% in Quebec)
Those results are for what Environics is describing as “Combined Decided Eligible Voters” as opposed to “Combined Eligible Voters” (which are the numbers being quoted at CAITI’s website). Again, I’ll leave it to the polling experts to decipher the difference.. as I’m a bit confused myself and wouldn’t mind knowing either .
UPDATE 2: I’ve edited the blogpost to include the 2nd subset of provincial breakdowns for Combined Decided Eligible Voters, as my colleague Eric from his comments seems to think that data (the CDEV dataset) is more useful to look at.
ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Liberals 44% 35% 44% 27% 26% 28% Cons 32% 14% 35% 44% 58% 33% NDP 21% 8% 12% 21% 6% 21% Greens 3% 6% 10% 8% 9% 18% BQ 36%
UPDATE 3 @ 2:46 pm: Eric projects what this poll would result in for seat tallies in the House of Commons:
This poll would give the following seat totals:
Liberals – 130
Conservatives – 112
Bloc Quebecois – 48
New Democrats – 17
Greens – 1
So, a minority government for the Liberals, a strong opposition for the Conservatives, and disastrous showing for the NDP.
UPDATE 4 @ 4:05 pm – If you’re a government/Conservative supporter, I have no issue with you disputing the poll results. I do have an issue though – as should all Canadians – when the IP addresses I can trace show that you’re posting anonymous comments on my site from Government of Canada servers. (It even tells me what Ministry/Dept you’re posting from – at the moment I’ve had 2 commentators from Canadian Heritage and Health Canada, respectively). Are you doing that on your own dime, or the taxpayers, and/or are you doing it with or without your employer’s knowledge?
UPDATE 5 @ 6:39 pm: Environics officially posts their poll at their own website (and note they’re using the 2nd set of data, the Combined Decided Eligible Voters numbers).