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Environics poll shows political horserace. CPC 35, LPC 32, NDP 15

It’s a lot closer then other polls released recently currently have shown, so don’t be surprised if the wise pundits on the Hill and elsewhere across the land either ignore it or dismiss it –  because it doesn’t fit their narrative of the Liberals sinking away and Ignatieff in trouble. It may very well be a “rogue” poll, but if an Ekos poll shows a sudden plunge in Liberal support – one that even the Conservative Party doubted, but still set the media on an Iggy deathwatch – then an Environics poll showing a virtual tie should also be discussed at face value by the media.

7 comments to Environics poll shows political horserace. CPC 35, LPC 32, NDP 15

  • I notice certain commentators, Liberals, are more interested in a bus breakdown than this poll. Bad news seems to be the only news for some who prefer to feel vindicated. Too bad.

  • Red Forever

    When last week Ekos poll came out Conservative supporters were dancing on air, even though they had completely dismissed Frank Graves, as a Liberal hack a few weeks before.

    Now I am proof positive that Conservative supporters will dismiss the results of this poll, and say it is a poll done for the CBC, and cannot be trusted. They will say it is all a plot done to help the faltering LPC, and the timing is suspect.

    You have to admire the consistency, and logic of your average Conservative supporter.

    I find them very consistent, in the fact that most of the time they never make any sense.

  • William M

    It’s summertime, can’t take any poll too seriously at the moment, IMO.

  • Volkov

    The thing with Environics, is that they’re consistently the best pollster for the Liberals – they’re always outpacing other polls, even Nanos, in the level of Liberal support shown.

    This doesn’t mean Environics is wrong, it just means that a skeptic’s eye should be used when viewing it, same as with Ekos or Angus Reid, pollsters whose results seem more than a tad off sometimes.

    • @Volkov, Absolutely agree on taking a critical view on polling. My points were more directed at the pundits who seem to seize on polls if it fits their views on how things are playing out, and seem to ignore them if they don’t – and it’s ignore the result usually, not even discuss/debate and perhaps dismiss, which would at least have them publicly debating the poll’s merits.

    • @Volkov, By the way, the CBC at least attempts an analysis: “the surveys suggest that depending on the specific questions and the methodology, differences arise in the level of Conservative support”, and then compares the #’s and polling questions of other recent pollsters. That at least is being analytical.

      • Volkov

        @Scott Tribe, you’re right about the pundits. It’s one of the reasons why Nik Nanos, an amazingly accurate pollster, doesn’t get the air time he deserves.

        Fyi, for a really good analysis on the kind of effects CBC attempted to describe, check here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2453 – not Canadian, but if you ever wonder why Angus Reid scares Liberals, this can help explain it.

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