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Latest poll shows Liberals should maintain their message of Oda and Cons waste.

Ekos has come out with a new poll that no doubt will have his Conservative detractors  claiming this is either Liberal biased, or part of a plot on Frank Graves part to show Con momentum declining (never mind his polling firm was one of the first to show the Conservative double-digit lead amongst established pollsters):

The Bev Oda affair and voter unease over the possibility of a Harper majority government has awakened a sleeping electorate that’s finally paying attention to federal politics, pollster Frank Graves says. His latest survey shows big swings in voter intention as the 12.5-point lead Stephen Harper’s Conservatives enjoyed over Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals two weeks ago has evaporated to a mere five points – 32.4 per cent of Canadians support the Tories compared to 27.3 per cent for the Grits. The NDP has 14.8 per cent support, the Bloc is at 10.5 per cent and the Green Party garners 11.9 per cent.

We’ll see if other pollsters also pick up this trend that Ekos has found with this poll.  The point I’m going to make here though is that in talking to some Liberals on the Hill I know, they weren’t too overly concerned with the polls when they were showing double-digit leads suddenly.  They acknowledged the attack ads probably were responsible, but the felt that was a short-term blip, and that the Liberals would remain consistent in their message on hammering at the F-35’s and the corporate tax cut of Harper’s, while also using the unexpected manna from Heaven in the form of Bev Oda and Harper’s refusal to fire her to reinforce the message that Harper has contempt for the traditions of Parliament. That view seemed to be reinforced publicly by Ignatieff, when he said he didn’t care about the current polls – that it was more important for him to try and get the Liberal message out.

Does 1 poll vindicate that view? No – other polls need to come out as well to confirm the drop in Conservative support –  but I agree  that the Liberals  need to keep hammering and repeating ad nauseam the themes of contempt and wasting billions of dollars on fighter jets, unnecessary prisons and unnecessary corporate tax cuts.  If there’s anything we can learn to copy from the Conservatives, it’s to keep repeating our main messages over and over and over again.  It will sink in to a certain amount of the electorate that the Liberals need to persuade to vote for them at the next election.

PS – I wonder how much this PR stunt that the Conservatives are doing today ended up costing? If anything tells you that the Oda affair is hurting them in public opinion, it’s doing a massive PR red herring such as this that confirms that.

 

 

30 comments to Latest poll shows Liberals should maintain their message of Oda and Cons waste.

  • Fred

    “Elections Canada has laid charges against the Conservative Party and four of its members, including two senators, over alleged violations of election spending rules.”

    They lost the first time, they’ll lose again. This is just a desperation move on their part, and is being widely panned by legal professionals. Oh, and those poll numbers?…same thing as last time and the time before; nothing to do with Bev Oda, everything to do with backing off on the threat of an election (thanks, Jack!). See, every time you guys threaten to bring the government down, our numbers go up; when you back off, they come back down. Good luck with that…

    • Redrum

      @Fred, all they lost on was on not being able to withhold the GST rebates on until AFTER the In & Out allegations were proven in court. Which is what is about to happen. And when it does, they’ll have to give that money back. And pay a fine, or go to jail. Stop believing what you’re told by the PMO Talking Points: they’re pure spin.

  • Roll Tide

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/945363–conservatives-looking-at-a-majority-new-poll-shows?bn=1

    The new Star poll with over double the sample (6000). 13% Tory lead….Not good news for people like me who want an election.

  • I hate to say it, but I do not think this issue has the required legs. Harper has a poop load of cash that he can keep throwing at ad and pounding home the message about Iggy not being really Canadian, yadda, yadda, yadda,…

    The liberals need a real issue, a simple issue and one that strikes home with the average Canadian voter (not us political wonks)

    The Corporate Tax cut issue should do it.

    • Redrum

      @Zorpheous, well, right, it’s not a make or break issue on it’s own, and most are coming round to the view that Oda herself is mostly just a hapless pawn — and victim — of the all-controlling PMO.

      But it shores up — and is the poster image for — one important leg of what may be a three or four-legged campaign, about this being emblematic of a highly controlling, highly secretive, lying, and bullying regime that makes its decisions on badly-informed and counter-productive ideological grounds, and which has no respect for democracy or indeed the people of Canada.

      • @Redrum, Hey don’t get me wrong Redrum, I’d love nothing more that the bad Oda to stay in the nostrils of the voting public. Gives me plenty of blogging fodder. I even have my “Harper throws Oda under the bus” post already written and waiting

    • Gayle

      @Zorpheous, Maybe, but that does not mean the opposition should not pursue it. Oda deliberately mislead the House. She has to be called on it.

      • @Gayle, by all means, bust Oda’s, the CPC and Harper’s ballz over the issue. At the end of the day it is still too complex an issue for the average voter, it just will not stick. Harper has been good this way, lots of little, complex scandals, but nothing significant enough to cost him much skin.

        While the left is divided, Harper can march up the middle and take the right flank.

        • Redrum

          @Zorpheous, really not that complicated:

          they tried to blame the civil service for a potentially unpopular political decision, even to the point of falsifying a document, and they repeatedly lied about and tried to wriggle out of it, even after being caught with the evidence.

          But here’s another skeleton which keeps popping back up to add to the stench of corruption that’s building up around them:

          “Elections Canada has laid charges against the Conservative Party and four of its members, including two senators, over alleged violations of election spending rules.”

          www + .cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/24/elections-canada-charges-conservative-party-campaign-spending.html

  • leeky

    No one care about Oda:

    Oda affair: burning issue with opposition but not catching fire with public

    The Canadian Press

    OTTAWA – A new poll suggests the Bev Oda document-altering scandal may not be as damaging to the Harper government as opposition parties had hoped.

    The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll found that half of those surveyed had heard nothing about the affair.

    Of the 50 per cent who were aware of the controversy, 32 per cent said the international co-operation minister should resign from cabinet, 10 per cent said she should stay and eight per cent were unsure.

    The poll comes as Liberals and New Democrats are vowing to turn up the heat on Oda when Parliament resumes Monday after a one-week break.

    Opposition parties have already been relentlessly hammering away at the issue for two weeks, which revolves around an altered document from Oda’s officials that ultimately denied funding to a church-based foreign-aid group.

    The telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians was conducted Feb. 17-20 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

    • Redrum

      @leeky, sorry, but that was a very misleading headline and badly reported article:

      It misreported the true extent of those who would fire the minister: it wasn’t 32% of the 50 (i.e., just 16% of those polled), it was 32% altogether (i.e., 64% of those who HAD heard of it).

      (Which is consistent with what Angus-Reid found last week when it presented its online panel with the pertinent facts and asked them what they thought, and 58% said she should resign, BTW).

      Hence, Harris-Decima’s own headline actually goes in the opposite direction:

      Those Aware of the Circumstances Tend to Feel Oda Should Resign

      www + .harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201102/1064-those-aware-circumstances-tend-feel-oda-should-resign

      And just wait until the Speaker rules that there’s good reasons to consider it’s a breach (i.e., that it’s reasonable to conclude she did deliberately attempt to mislead the House) and the issue plays out for another month or two.

      Then lots more than half will be aware, and lots will think that either she OR her PMO “advisers” should take responsibility / fall on their sword for this.

      • Redrum

        and guess what, it’s your own base and target demos that believe a head should roll:

        – Roughly one in four Conservatives (27%) believes Ms. Oda should resign (and that’s of All — so, it’s about 50% of those who are aware of the story; wait’ll the news hits the 47% of the Conservatives who’ve tuned it out, so far). Only 18% are in the die-hard camp of Cons. who are both aware of the story AND think she should stay.

        – 43% of those over age 50 think she should resign from Cabinet; and, again, that figure’s likely to climb to at least 60%, once more people hear of it (about a third of those in that age group hadn’t heard of it, yet).

        www + .harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2011/02/24/hd-2011-02-24-en1064.pdf

  • Roll Tide

    Good time for an election. Lets get that deck shuffled.

  • TofKW

    Yet again, wilson hijacks another post – and all these pixels are wasted in dealing with her bullshit.

    There is a remedy for this…

    wilson=spam

    • Jon Pertwee

      @TofKW, hear hear!

      Do you think that by spending her day cut and pasting, Wilson considers herself a “hard working” canadian? All those mice and CPC arent going to click themselves. Same with the cut and pasting.

      Wilson, are you the “Wilson, Duke of Lizards”? Google it, Im not joking. It sounds a bit like you.

      Yeah wilson=spam

  • wilson

    Redrum @11:46 am
    I would say Libloggers are putting too much faith in the ‘opinions’ of reporters.
    And our national reporters/journalists do not always get the facts before reporting, be that with Liberal or Conservative bias.

    Refer again, to what Norman Spector said, too much mis-information out there.
    Milliken must find the element of ‘intent’ in a contempt decision.

    When CIDA Officials were aware of a rejection notice coming down the pipe,
    and when CIDA Officials themselves call the KAIROS decision a CIDA decision, months before Minister Oda did,
    where is the intent, and where is the intended vicitm?

    • Redrum

      @wilson, you’re embarrassing yourself again. The “intent” the Speaker has to rule on — which is set out in his ruling which is included in Kady’s post that I linked above — is whether the Minister intended to mislead the House about why KAIROS got defunded, with her, at best, equivocal statements about it being evaluated against CIDA’s criteria and being found wanting, and with the even more equivocal piece of paper documenting who recommended it… or NOT. Your even if your would-be savior blogger, and the hair-splitting PMO talking points and their mouthpiece Tom Lukiwski are right about Oda not technically perjuring herself when she stuck to the PMO-scripted lines, that doesn’t settle the issue of whether a reasonable person might be led to believe from her statements in the House & the Committee & from the documentation itself that they were implying that it was the bureaucrats who determined that it did not meet CIDA’s criteria — which is untrue. And the “victims” are manifold: the only one the Speaker has the mandate to consider is: the Members of Parliament, who’s right to the full honest truth may have been breached. But for the rest of us, its the whole Canadian public, for possibly being lied to again by a government wanting to blame the public service for its own ideological decisions; and also the KAIROS agency, which faced layoffs, and had to scramble for new donations to stay afloat; and the 20 or so foreign NGOs they were going to pass most of the funds on to; and the 2.5 million people in the catchment area of all those partner agencies, like rape victims in the Congo, and completely disenfranchised women who want to get their rights recognized in the new constitution in the Sudan, where there was just a major political upheaval.

      You know: _women_, whom you’ve just claimed to be so much better at representing the interests & concerns of.

      (see their latest response at

      www + .cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2011/02/kairos-we-carry-on.html

  • It does not bode well for the CPC when the first sentence of the Ottawa SUN article refers to the aim of the PR blitz as touting the virtues of the “so-called” Economic Action Plan. Eep!

    • Redrum

      @dylan, yeah, and not just in Ottawa, but Canada-wide, across the whole Sun / QMI chain

      better yet, see his (David Akin) follow up, which supports a lampoon headline on Phase 2 of the EAP: The Canadian Economic Acting Plan:

      “$23,000 for skits! Tories roll out pork barrel to seniors in their ridings across Canada”
      www + .ottawasun.com/comment/columnists/david_akin/2011/02/23/17386231.html

      Nice to see the media are tired of being used as patsies to prop up this abusive & cynical gov’t and are calling attention to some of this crap, which betrays all the principles that the alleged Reformers vowed to bring to bear on Ottawa.

  • wilson

    Yes, the media certainly can drive up or down poll numbers.
    But Milliken still has to make his decision, now that he has all the facts.
    Not so sure about that manna thing.

    Norman Spector, on CKNW, Monday @ 10:19 AM:

    “… There’s just SO much mis-information floating around on this issue. So I’m just going to make a prediction:
    That when the Speaker of the House of Commons, Milliken rules, he will rule that the Minister did NOT lie to Parliament, and there was NO document forgery …

    There’s been such a feeding frenzy in the media in Ottawa, I haven’t seen anything like this since 1991 … the Speaker will rule that there is no prima-facie case of contempt of Parliament in this instance”

    • Redrum

      @wilson, you & peterb are in such denial about all this, it’s embarrassing. It’s like you wouldn’t believe your own spouses were being unfaithful even if you caught them naked in bed with someone (er, “They’re from pest control; we were just checking for bedbugs…”)

      The only reason the Speaker couldn’t rule they were in breach the first time was due to a technicality that wouldn’t allow him to include some of the FOI documents before him because they hadn’t been formally tabled in the House.

      www + .cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2011/02/kairoswatch-speaker-finds-no-breach-of-privilege-yet-in-allegedly-misleading-statements-by-cida-mini.html

      • wilson

        Actually, Milliken did rule the first time, found Oda not in contempt. But he was limited to the evidence he could use because the committee hadn’t tabled the docs in the House, or something like that.

        Now Milliken has all the testimony, and additional facts not known or at least not publicly known at the time.
        1. Oda was not in town, she directed a staffer to write in the NOT.
        2. CIDA Pres Margaret Biggs testified that she knew BEFORE the approval note was sent to Oda that KAIROS funding was not going to be approved.

        So we have NOT a lie, and NOT falsifying documents.

        This pretty much lays out the NOT a scandal side of things,
        if you are interested in the case that will be presented to Milliken.
        http://stuffoccurs.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/update-timelines-and-transcripts/

        • Gayle

          @wilson, heh.

          We also have a deliberate attempt by a Minister of the Crown to mislead the Canadian people.

          But you can go on pretending the only thing that matters is who altered the document, as if that is going to be the end of it.

          ha ha ha ha ha

        • Redrum

          @wilson, that mackenzieam blogger you’re putting so much faith in is a piece of work, too:

          – she gives way too much credence to the PMO-scripted testimony & talking points;
          – she’s completely over-identifying with the Minister & projecting her own experiences as a political staffer to a single Ontario Minister (in a couple different Ministries) to blame the bullying bureaucracy (even accusing them of a near “coup”), but
          – she’s just making things up about what went on at CIDA — it’s pure fantasy,
          – she has NO justification for concluding that CIDA knew well in advance that the decision was to be NOT; the purposely vague bit of testimony from the Committee she was basing that on (below) was actually consistent with CIDA’s head only being told AFTER the fateful decision was made, on Nov. 29
          – she’s even wading into an area she has NO expertise in, in claiming that it didn’t really meet CIDA’s criteria so they had no business recommending it: that it had too much to do with promoting rights, for example, but CIDA doesn’t do that — except that, um, both the agency & CIDA have been quite clear that it DID meet the criteria that were in place at the time it made it’s application, in early 2009, and even now, its funding 201 projects which address human rights to some extent.

          (cut & paste this link into browser, remove the plus + spaces, and load, http + ://urlm.in/hcrz to get CIDA’s funded projects advanced search form; select “Operational” for the currently funded ones, enter the keyword “human rights” and toggle exact phrase, and: hit “search”)

          like, um, the “Sierra Leonean Human Rights, Governance and Media” project
          www + .acdi-cida.gc.ca/cidaweb/cpo.nsf/vLUWebProjEn/7D989F4E6CFA3FFD8525773F00373232?OpenDocument

          “Hon. John McKay:
          When were you informed that the grant was not to be recommended?

          Ms. Margaret Biggs [President of CIDA]:
          I can’t give you the exact date, but I was told. The minister told me verbally that she wasn’t going to approve it. “

      • wilson

        ‘It’s like you wouldn’t believe your own spouses were being unfaithful even if you caught them naked in bed with someone’

        why go there? can’t Liberals debate an issue without a personal attack using sex or a body part…?
        No wonder Liblogs has very few women bloggers.

        • Redrum

          @wilson, actually, it’s strange you should go there, since I didn’t actually name any body parts, but you just did, over on Macleans:

          “And if Jack is smart, he will detach the NDP from the Liberal butt and be as willing to work with a Conservative government as he was the separatists.”

          http + ://www2.macleans.ca/2011/02/24/what-was-stephen-harper-thinking-in-1997/

    • Gayle

      @wilson, The funniest part? Not one conservative supporter denies that Oda deliberately tried to mislead the House. Like wilson (who has come up with many excuses for Oda), they fixate on whether Oda saying she did not know “who” altered the document is a lie. The fact (that they do not deny) that Oda was trying to give the impression she had nothing to do with it does not bother wilson one little bit. Wilson supports deceiving Parliament and the Canadian people.

      • wilson

        Gayle, read the link I provided.
        And I’m sure you will recognise this, as I have said it repeatedly,
        the request for funding from the Crats was bird cage liner until Minister Oda signed it,
        then it became a CIDA decision.

        CIDA Officials can NOT refer to ANY department decision as a CIDA decison, until the MINISTER responsible has signed off.
        Proof: Contrary to Crats recommendation, KAIROS funding ‘request’ was rejected,
        CIDA Official called them, said their project did not suit CIDA’s priorities.
        KAIROS (supposedly) did not know the Crats position until they obtained a copy of the CIDA rejection note.

        • Bull Caller

          @wilson,

          Spin spin spin spin, minimize minimize……er… Adscam!!!

          C’mon Wilson – are you that pathetic? Seriously. Oda Lied in the house and has admitted so. We may never technically “prove” where the direction came from as you seem to be like your cohorts splitting the split hairs… but it is plainly clear.

          The proper thing to have done would have been to have asked the minister to resign. Politically, the reformacons have picked a curious hill to die on, considering the other scandals that are beginning to percolate in the background such as the vaunted Ethics Commissioner’s sweeping of literally every complaint (over 200) under the rug, and her cozy (and unprecedented) relationship with the PCO. But hey, keep splitting those hairs on Oda, I’m sure we’ll all be convinced that everthing is entirely kosher here.

        • Gayle

          @wilson, And yet you still do not deny Oda deliberately tried to mislead the House by making it appear as though she had nothing to do with the decision.

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