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A couple of post-debate, post-auditor general polls close the gap

Ekos yesterday had a dramatic narrowing of the race.. down to a mere five points:

Voters appear to be pulling back from giving the Harper government a Conservative majority and are now looking more carefully at other options, an EKOS-iPolitics poll conducted prior to the English-language debate suggests. In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5 point lead. Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.

You need to be cautious about basing trends on one poll (witness the Sunmedia commissioned poll yesterday from Compas, claiming a 21 point Conservative lead and approaching Mulroney like majority numbers), so it was with interest I waited to see what Nanos said, and they too show a narrowing lead – down to a national 7.8% lead. In fact, the Liberals have a four point lead in the province of Ontario, which would mean quite a few Conservative seats would be in play and lost in Ontario, if those #’s were to hold on May 2.

Post-debate reaction? Auditor General leaked reports reaction? Hard to say, but it will be interesting to see over the next week how things trend. The next major thing to watch for is Quebec’s reaction to their debate last night. It appears what reaction in polls I’ve seen say in equal measures that Layton, Iggy and Duceppe did very well, while Harper was the loser of the debate (though not “big”, according to the esteemed political pundits out there), so it will be interesting to see party poll #’s in that province.

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3 comments to A couple of post-debate, post-auditor general polls close the gap

  • kwittet

    Montreal…I would not like to see that. What I would like to see from Either iggy or Harpers teams is true platforms and not trying to win an election by mud slinging. Show me how you are going to make it better and you win my vote. Sling mud to try to win…you lose my vote.
    Dont care which party it is.

    signed
    jaded voter

    • Jon Pertwee

      I thought you were supporting an independent candidate this election? BTW Im being serious and not snarky asking this. The candidate you linked to back then was pretty interesting.

  • MontrealElite

    Now the LPC has to get out ads highliting the platform and reinforcing the comptempt ruling against Harper.

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