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Orange Crush?

Two stunner polls out this AM. CROP, which is a Quebec only pollster, and Ekos are showing an NDP (orange) wave in Quebec, as they’ve overtaken the BQ for the lead in the province. CROP gives the NDP a shocking 36% poll there (5 point lead on the BQ), and a stunning 40% result in Metro Montreal.

You might discount that as being a rogue poll, but along comes Ekos with similar #’s:

Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past the Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Québécois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to a poll conducted by Ekos Research and iPolitics. The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1 per cent while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7 per cent. The Liberals are steady at 20.6 per cent while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9 per cent.

More interesting are Ekos’s national #’s:

While the The NDP surge is most dramatic in Quebec, it is certainly not contained to there. Nationally, the NDP is now effectively tied with the Liberals at 24.9 per cent to 25.8 per cent. Both continue to lag behind the Conservatives, who were preferred by 34.5 per cent of respondents.

Is that Orange wave/crush a mirage or reality? I guess we’ll find out on May 2. Nanos, the other pollster out this AM, does not detect the NDP surge in Quebec, but instead shows them gaining some ground naitonally at Liberal expense. I’ll say this however – I’ve no problem with the NDP gaining and winning seats from the BQ in Quebec. A federalist party decimating the BQ in that province is good for Canada. I didn’t think it would be the NDP, but if they can do so, it’s good news. (Personally, I hope from an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” point of view that the NDP orange wave takes out some Conservative seats in Saskatchewan and BC as well, (outside of Liberal ridings, of course 😉 ).

Secondly, if that current Ekos result were to hold – that’s a Pizza parliament if I’ve ever seen one. Ekos as of this writing has not released regionals, but I have to think Tories are losing seats with a 34.5% result, regardless if the Liberals and NDP are tied nationally. The Liberals might not be dancing for joy exactly at this poll, but Harper and his Conservatives will not be happy.

It will be interesting to see if the Conservatives turn their wrath on Layton now.

7 comments to Orange Crush?

  • RollTide

    I always thought we would get another Tory minority, I now think its going to be a Harper majority.
    I drove through Aurora Newmarket, lawn signs 3-1 Conservative.

  • JamesF

    Ekos has seat projections up…

    CPC: 134
    LPC: 82
    NDP: 60
    BQ: 28

    If that were to happen… well let’s just say we’ll be cursed to live in interesting times.

  • foottothefire

    I am so damned pissed at Ignatieff right now but have a larger concern of split votes giving Harper the power to F Canada in the manner he’s threatened so often.
    Ignatieff had better get his ass in gear and sell what he’s got, stay the F. away from open ended, fishing questions and SET HIS OWN Goddamn agenda! If that means ignoring the press well then F’,n well do it!…(next time your talking to him, Scott).

  • Lance

    How many cabinet seats in a NDP led coalition do you think Layton will let whoever the Liberal leader will be have? 😉

  • Trading Bloc for NDP is fine. But if the Cons survive in Quebec due to a vote split, bad news. They need to lose as many of those Quebec ridings as possible, and were on course to do so until perhaps now.

  • janfromthebruce

    Thank you Scot!

  • Lance

    Libs 24 or so, NDP 24 or so, CPC 34 or so………..that is a split right up the middle if ever there was one.

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