Ekos’s updated poll from yesterday confirmed their surprise polling results over Easter:
For the fifth day in a row, we see a pretty stable voter landscape which would have been unimaginable at the outset of the campaign. The Conservative Party is at 33.9 points, which is down from the outset of the campaign and well short of a majority. Only six points back are the burgeoning NDP supporters at 27.9 while the Liberal Party is stuck at sub-Dion levels at 24.0...It is increasingly clear that the orange wave is a real phenomenon. What isn’t clear is how this will affect the final permutations of the campaign, let alone the post May 2nd political landscape of Canada.
Angus-Reid this AM (leaked last night) validated Ekos as not being an outlier:
A “seismic shift” among voters has vaulted the NDP to second place, just five points behind the Conservative front-runners while the Liberals are falling further behind, a new poll reveals. A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.
It doesn’t appear to be a passing fancy either:
With less than a week to go in the campaign, Jack Layton is riding a wave of popular support for the NDP not seen in two decades, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion. “What’s interesting about this shift is not only is the NDP gaining in popularity but that their vote seems to be solidifying,” he said.
And while Nanos this AM still has Conservative support higher then these 2, it too shows the NDP wave, as they vault into 2nd place nationally and “trending up” everywhere in Nanos.
This is going to be painful as a Liberal supporter to say, but it now seems apparent and obvious that the only way to stop a Harper majority is for Jack Layton’s Orange Wave to build and maintain thru E-day. Justin Trudeau’s frank assessment on SunTv was accurate; the Liberals campaign – despite it being run well and being a good campaign – has failed to resonate with voters. The NDP and Jack Layton’s campaign has.
I’m not saying that Liberals should give up – in fact, Ignatieff still is drawing large crowds where ever he goes, in spite of those polls – but if our message isn’t resonating, and progressives are turning to the NDP and Jack’s has, I’m okay with that – better that then a Harper majority.