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A stunner of a new Ontario poll, if accurate.

Wow:

A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested it’s main rival in many months.The Ontario poll has the Liberals in the lead at 43 per cent, the PC’s with 31 per cent, the NDP at 21 and the Green Party trailing with five per cent. The 43 per cent support for the Liberals, if accurate, puts the party in majority government territory.

Even though I thought Tim Hudak’s abortion stuff would not go over well in mainstream Ontario, and the Liberals have fought back against the immigrant “foreigners” issue that Hudak has been trying to use to stir up fear and such, I’m still surprised at this poll result, since it’s the first out there showing this big jump in Liberal support. Other polls have of course showed a narrowing of the race, but this is quite the turn-around if it’s accurate.

We’ll have to see if other polls in the coming days verify this shift to Mcguinty and the Liberals, but if this is what is happening, this would be another big shift to the OLP that was entirely of the PC’s making, just as it was with John Tory four years ago.

UPDATE @ 6:47 pm: It looks like from reading on Twitter that the site quoting these poll numbers went back and confirmed with Harris-Decima the actual numbers – slightly different, but still showing the Liberals with an 11 point lead.

5 comments to A stunner of a new Ontario poll, if accurate.

  • Kendra

    Rogue poll. Tories will be out ahead again next week due to the immigrant tax credit proposal. Bet on it.

    • Um.. try to at least be correct in wording what it is, Kendra. It’s a tax credit for new Canadians who’ve arrived here in the last 5 years. That’s new Canadians, not immigrants, not “foreign workers”.

      As for a rogue poll and the Tories going back ahead because of it, we’ll see.. but I don’t believe there are enough angry fearful white males out there to turn that tide. There may be just as many Ontarions disgusted at Hudak for attempting to create wedge politics out of smearing new Canadians and trying to sew fear and anger, or angry at him for being hypocritical about this, since he and his party offered something very similar just last year.

  • Anything can still happen. Expect low voter turn out so be sure to be at the polls.

  • sharonapple88

    The poll was taken from August 25-September 4 — just before everything turned ugly this week. It’ll be interesting to see if it holds up, or if this poll turns out to be one of those mythic 1 out of 20 polls where the results are screwy. Either way, it’s a long month until the vote and anything can happen. (Don’t want to be a downer…. just terrified of jinxing the situation by believing that it’s actually true. I’m going to stay in denial for a while. 😉 )

  • Paul Raposo

    I’m happy to see this, but that’s a pretty wide margin for an election that hasn’t started yet. I hope we can hold onto this lead come election day.

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