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Politics, polls and personal stuff

Lots of stuff to talk about at the beginning of this week:

– The official Fall session for the federal Parliament begins today. The Conservatives and Harper will now begin the process of ending or killing everything they don’t like ideologically – which they now can do with their majority. Most governments try to create a legacy when they’re in government. Harper and his bunch will have a legacy that I predict will end up being remembered for trying to destroy everything that is Liberal or liberal oriented. It will be interesting though to see how effective the Official Opposition New Democrats (without Layton) and the Liberals (without a permanent […]

When pollsters go after each other.

As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:

Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere dupes […]

Toronto isn’t liking Hudak right now either

Another credible pollster – Forum Research – decided to take a poll specifically in Toronto, where conservative mayor Rob Ford and federal Conservatives had major breakthroughs of seats for varying reasons. The result isn’t the same at the moment for the provincial PC’s:

The party has slipped to third place in the city, dropping 10 percentage points since June 1 to 24 per cent support. The Liberals, who hold 19 of 23 seats in Toronto, is at 39 per cent, up from 34 per cent three months ago. The NDP, which has four seats here, has leapfrogged the Tories and is at 30 per cent up from 26 per cent. […]

The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

We had some people wondering if the Harris-Decima poll earlier last week showing an 11 point Liberal lead was an “outlier”. Well, we have 2 new polls out this evening in a matter of minutes within each other, and while the #’s are different, the momentum is confirmed by those polls for the Liberals.

First off, we have a poll from Ipsos-Reid;

According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have 38 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for Tim Hudak and the PC party. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trail with 24 per cent… the McGuinty campaign has the […]

Miscellaneous Ontario election campaign tidbits

A couple of things here and there this AM:

Eric Grenier of threehundredeight.com has a piece in the Globe and Mail about his seat projections for the Ontario election. If the election were held today, based on recent poll results, he gives the Conservatives and Liberals each 44 seats, with the NDP holding the balance of power at 19. Yes, that is still a sizable seat loss for the governing Liberals, and it still might put their hold on government in jeopardy if that result were to pan out, but considering where the polls were 2-3 months ago, and considering they seem to have Tim Hudak and the Conservatives on […]

A stunner of a new Ontario poll, if accurate.

Wow:

A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested it’s main rival in many months.The Ontario poll has the Liberals in the lead at 43 per cent, the PC’s with 31 per cent, the NDP at 21 and the Green Party trailing with five per cent. The 43 per cent support for the Liberals, if accurate, puts the party in majority government territory.

Even though I thought Tim Hudak’s abortion stuff would not go over well in mainstream Ontario, and the Liberals have fought back against the immigrant “foreigners” […]

Conservatives of all stripes hoping Ontario voters have short memories; are mean-spirited

Last year, ‘Progressive’ Conservative leader Tim Hudak presented a bill that would give a 10 per cent wage subsidy for employers who hire skilled newcomers. Now he’s out there attacking the Ontario Liberals for proposing something very similar – tax credits for businesses that hire immigrants.

A few months ago, the federal Conservatives appealed to the ethnic communities in Canada’s big cities, with a proposal to provide loans for “skills training and accreditation”. Yet all of a sudden, Dean Del Maestro, MP for Peterborough and Harper’s secretary is attacking this as being discriminatory – apparently towards “young white males” if you read his reference to himself. I’m not sure I’ll […]

The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)

I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes.

Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, showing a tighter race. When rounded, it’s basically PC’s 35, Liberals 32, and NDP 23. Comparing to the previous Nanos poll, it appears that voters aren’t too enthralled yet. The PC’s and Liberals are both down between 5-7%, while the NDP made some gains. It […]

‘The Jack effect’ scares the Conservatives

A new poll is out that shows the Conservatives and the NDP in a virtual tie – unsurprisingly linked to the recent death of Jack Layton:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey pegs support for Layton’s NDP at 33 per cent — tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent. That’s almost a three-point gain for the New Democrats since the May 2 election, which vaulted the party into official Opposition status for the first time in its 50-year history. The Tories are down almost seven points while the Liberals are up two. Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said the NDP gain is most likely […]

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