3 responses

  1. Volkov
    05/11/2012

    ^Lolpost.

  2. Anon ABC
    05/11/2012

    Scott,

    You might recall that years ago I had predicted that Ignatieff would drive away the progressive votes from the Liberal party. What Liberals like Zach (maybe Volkov too, above comment???) apparently fail to understand is that the progressive votes have shifted over to the NDP quite strongly. Unless the Liberals can win these votes back, they will be left with support essentially from the so-called “Blue” Liberals. Many of the latter, I suspect, were the ones who unfortunately voted for Harper to block the NDP in the last election.

    There are not too many votes that the Liberal party can win from the Conservative base. These people would rather vote for the Contempt Party or stay home. Look at the popular votes when the PCs were devastated in 1993: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993 Notice that although the PC won only two seats, the total popular vote for both PC and Reform was about 35%. If recent polls are to be believed, the Contempt Party is down to around 30%, or 5% lower already than that combined PC-Reform vote. I suspect that the Conservative base is around 20-25% so there may be a further bleeding of 5-10% at most. Even if the Liberal Party can capture all these votes (unlikely, some of them will go to the Greens, or more likely, just stay home), it will increase Liberal support to 30% at most (as recent polls have the Liberals at around 20%). Zach, it appears, like Iggy is misguided if he thinks he can vault over the NDP (unless of course the latter were to shoot themselves in the foot, three years are an awfully long time).

    BTW, Zach’s comment about immigrants is also likely misguided. Many immigrant Canadians are fiscally conservative but socially progressive. It is possible that some new immigrants may be fooled by the Harper party that they can retain benefits like OAS, EI, etc. while slashing taxes. However, many immigrant Canadians who have been here for a long time do understand that someone has to pay for the programs they cherish. Therefore, I suspect, they could naturally vote for the NDP.

    Hopefully, Mulcair and the NDP will not make the same mistake that Iggy and the Liberals made and think that they can capture power all by themselves by shunning the Liberals. As an ABC voter, I would rather see the NDP, Liberals and Green come together as a coalition, or at least have a working arrangement to fight the next election. Either that or we will have more of this government.

  3. Volkov
    05/11/2012

    I think you’re selling Zach a bit short. He’s not wrong – demographic and fiscal changes are making our country more “fiscally conservative,” or at least more responsible with its spending. The rise of the NDP has little to do with that – in fact it may be a symptom,given that the NDP under Layton was not exactly promising freewheeling spending as past Dipper leaders have, and Mulcair is leading them even farther away from that. And Harper’s message of “restraint” coupled with promises to protect the necessary parties of social welfare, it’s obviously caught on. McGuinty promised as much the same. People don’t want hack and slash, but they want responsibility.

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