Archives

A sample text widget

Etiam pulvinar consectetur dolor sed malesuada. Ut convallis euismod dolor nec pretium. Nunc ut tristique massa.

Nam sodales mi vitae dolor ullamcorper et vulputate enim accumsan. Morbi orci magna, tincidunt vitae molestie nec, molestie at mi. Nulla nulla lorem, suscipit in posuere in, interdum non magna.

An early Trudeau effect in polling?

Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains:

A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first time since April 2012. The new poll shows support for the Conservatives remains steady at 33.3 per cent, with the Liberals at 30.1 per cent, the NDP at 27.9 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 4.7 per cent, and the Green Party at 2.9 per cent.

Mr Nanos indicates that may be to do with the Liberal leadership race:

“Many parties naturally do well during leadership races because voters can project onto a leaderless party based on the possible choices,” said pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research.

There are 2 possible choices at the moment for Liberal leader: Justin Trudeau, and Deborah Coyne. With all due respect to Ms. Coyne, that projection is likely mostly on Justin Trudeau’s entry into the race. If Canadians are excited by Justin’s entry into the race, that’s a good positive first step. Still, one needs to be cautious, and one poll from one polling company, and there are many polling companies out there. For example, as much as I’d like for it to be the case, I’m having a difficult time believing that the Liberals have surged to nearly 41% in BC, as this poll is indicating (Nano’s smaller samples in the provinces have larger margins of error; in BC’s case, the MOE is around 9%). I’d like to see a few other polls from a few other companies that declare similar results, before we declare this is a trend.

Secondly, being a popular personality is one thing: how you do once you become leader – and the policies you bring with you – are entirely another. Ignatieff had an initial bump in his polls too, once he became leader, as did Dion. We all know how that turned out. This is why I’m hoping that there will be some more prominent Liberals enter the race, if only to give some alternative views/policies so we can compare them, and to make sure we don’t have a coronation for Liberal leader.

2 comments to An early Trudeau effect in polling?

  • JamesF

    I don’t trust these numbers… The Liberals have doubled their support in BC to 40%? The Tories lurched up 10 points in Atlantic Canada? All over just a month? No, I don’t buy it… I can maybe buy the national number shift since the Liberals have gotten a bunch of good free press via Justin over the last month but the provincial breakdowns are silly.

  • Grant

    There are 2 possible choices at the moment for Liberal leader: Justin Trudeau, and Deborah Coyne. With all due respect to Ms. Coyne, that projection is likely mostly on Justin Trudeau’s entry into the race.

    Let the coronation begin! The last Liberal coronated King is gone. All hail King Justin. Long reign the new King.

unique visitors since the change to this site domain on Nov 12, 2008.