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Another poll to take at face value

Ipsos-Reid was the only pollster last month that showed the three federal parties in a three way tie and the NDP at the 30% mark. This of course was immediately seized upon by my NDP colleagues – I can’t say I blame them really; though the fact they ignored every other pollster that didn’t show this was a tad amusing.

Anyhow, I quote this month’s poll not because I like its numbers (though I do) or because I like its methodology (it uses internet panels, which I’m about as leery on as I am with IVR that Forum uses), but because it now has started to reflect other polling done […]

Can someone pay a pollster other then Forum to re-poll the Mayor Ford approval rating?

I’m rather skeptical of those numbers – or any numbers – that Forum polls after last night. The Manitoba ridings were way off, as you might have seen. The Ontario #’s were slightly better; they can claim to be within the MOE at least in those races, though not as close as they’d like, I’m sure, but their polls performed erratically and inconsistently, and I’m looking forward to Forum’s post-mortem analysis (if there is any).

Anyhow.. I’d be posting a detailed analysis of how they did, but Eric Grenier has already done it for me.. so go read him there.

Anyhow.. bottom line.. it was still a great night for […]

Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

JFK

Fifty years ago today in Dallas, history was literally changed by a hail of bullets. It was before my time, but my parents were teenagers at the time and they recalled it vividly – JFK’s assassination caused grief in Canada too.

It might be said that the JFK assassination started the long decline in American politics – the escalation of Vietnam and the subsequent divisions over that, then Watergate. American politics hasn’t been particularly the same since JFK. We all know by now that JFK certainly wasn’t perfect, but one wonders what would have happened if he had remained alive – what would have occurred in his 2nd term?

The […]

Byelection observations: Keep an eye on Brandon later today.

I say that because PM Harper is in Winnipeg this (last) evening at the Jets game. It will be extremely interesting to see whether he pops in to Brandon-Souris tomorrow to personally campaign or not for the local Conservative candidate. The fact a personalized brochure was mailed out from the CPC to the riding voters shows they are rather concerned with the outcome of this vote.

If he shows up there, it might solidify notions the Conservatives are in trouble here; sitting PM’s rarely heavily campaign in by-elections, if at all. On the other hand, they may not bring him in if they feel it’s a lost cause; no […]

Amazing how the news cycle works.

The RCMP releases their investigation notes on the Mike Duffy Senate Scandal from an officer explaining his thoughts on what he thinks so far of the investigation…. and 2 days later, you’d never even known anything was going on in Toronto with Rob Ford. He’s almost completely disappeared from the news and social media. I’m sure the Harper Government was hoping Ford would carry on his ridiculous antics for at least a day or 2 more.. though I doubt this latest news from the RCMP would have been overshadowed either way.

The latest in QP from today is detailed by Macleans here, and a story from CBC how Harper “ducked” […]

A prediction wrapped in a question

Is it too early/too bold to predict that because of today’s RCMP revelations/allegations that multiple members of the Prime Minister’s Office and top Conservative Senators conspired to whitewash the Mike Duffy report, it may have assured the Liberal Party wins the Brandon-Souris byelection on Monday – a riding it has only won once in the last 60 years?

Maybe. As has been pointed out by others who are veteran campaign folks, the Conservatives will have a large advantage on organization and ground game, and there are reports from a week or 2 ago that Jenni Byrne, the top person in the PMO, had taken personal control of the CPC campaign […]

A further note to Premier Wynne: Why the foot-dragging on Ranked Ballot for Toronto?

As an aside to this blogpost’s main point, this would also be a good time to ask Premier @Kathleen_Wynne (her twitter address, if you were wondering) to allow Toronto to use ranked ballot for electing mayors in elections, as was passed by council and which they they requested, and which has been sitting at Queen’s Park for 5 months now, and which according to Adam Radwanski of the Globe and Mail, has been deemed by the Premier’s Office or government officials not to be a “priority”.

I find this, quite honestly, astonishing. This crisis gives them as good a political cover as any to help pass it. (though I dont […]

Please Premier Wynne… remove Rob Ford now..

..or give Toronto City Council the tools to do it themselves, before he embarrasses Toronto and Canada any further or hurts someone:

An unprecedented council meeting descended temporarily into chaos on Monday, when Mayor Rob Ford and Councillor Doug Ford got into a screaming match with spectators..Councillor Pam McConnell, who is barely five-feet tall, was knocked from her feet as Rob Ford charged through council chambers during the melee.”This is a seat of democracy, not a football field,” McConnell said. “I wasn’t ready for it.”

Your video/pic of Ford imagining he was out playing football, rather then being a Mayor of Canada’s largest city:

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