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A prediction wrapped in a question

Is it too early/too bold to predict that because of today’s RCMP revelations/allegations that multiple members of the Prime Minister’s Office and top Conservative Senators conspired to whitewash the Mike Duffy report, it may have assured the Liberal Party wins the Brandon-Souris byelection on Monday – a riding it has only won once in the last 60 years?

Maybe. As has been pointed out by others who are veteran campaign folks, the Conservatives will have a large advantage on organization and ground game, and there are reports from a week or 2 ago that Jenni Byrne, the top person in the PMO, had taken personal control of the CPC campaign (which would explain the attack ad brochures being shipped out there in the last week, which among the usual CPC smears against Justin Trudeau, takes personal umbrage that LPC candidate Rolf Dinsdale once played in a punk rock band which did “raunchy lyrics” – SFH, the band Warren Kinsella is in, if you were wondering). They will go all out to try and prevent an upset here (the most recent Forum Poll had the LPC up by 8%)

That said, early voting indicated a sizable increase from 2011; that normally does not bode well for a government in power trying to hold a seat – that normally indicates dissatisfaction. Also, it doesn’t matter how good an organization you have on the ground if the people you’re trying to get to vote for you don’t want to vote for you, or worse, vote for the rival party.

We will just have to see how Monday unfolds. These revelations today certainly don’t help the CPC cause, however.

1 comment to A prediction wrapped in a question

  • Gayle

    No matter what happens, clearly the conservatives are scared. Whether or not the LPC pick up the seat, there may be a story in how many votes they picked up over last time.

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