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Byelection observations: Keep an eye on Brandon later today.

I say that because PM Harper is in Winnipeg this (last) evening at the Jets game. It will be extremely interesting to see whether he pops in to Brandon-Souris tomorrow to personally campaign or not for the local Conservative candidate. The fact a personalized brochure was mailed out from the CPC to the riding voters shows they are rather concerned with the outcome of this vote.

If he shows up there, it might solidify notions the Conservatives are in trouble here; sitting PM’s rarely heavily campaign in by-elections, if at all. On the other hand, they may not bring him in if they feel it’s a lost cause; no point in making him wear the result more then he already has with the letter he ordered mailed out.

One other thing on Toronto Centre – I would expect one more poll before the vote on Monday. The LPC in the last poll a few days ago led by 15, (with as always the caveat this was a Forum poll, who need a good accurate result with their polling on these byelections before I trust them more) so that’s quite a gap. That said, I’m sure the NDP will be dragging in every volunteer they can in a 500 km radius to try and make that gap up and try to gain this riding. I’m sure the Liberals are aware of this however, and I’m confident they will find plenty of their own volunteers to canvas and ensure the ground game is up (and I’m sure if any of you Liberals who read this who wish to help out there can go and help – I doubt they’ll turn you away).

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