Well, as expected, Forum is polling the 2 byelections just called in Ontario, and will be providing us fodder.. er.. numbers.. to look at. Here are their first “results”:
In Thornhill, where a successor to former Tory MPP Peter Shurman will be chosen, Tory candidate Gila Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Liberal Sandra Yeung Racco.The NDP and Greens will select candidates this weekend so Forum polled using their 2011 election standard-bearers. Green Stephanie Duncan was at 10 per cent and New Democrat Cindy Hackelberg was at 7 per cent… In Niagara Falls, where the byelection is being held to find a replacement for retired Liberal MPP Kim Craitor, Tory Bart Maves, a former MPP, was at 36 per cent to 28 per cent for Liberal Joyce Morocco. New Democrat Wayne Gates, expected to be formally nominated this weekend, was also at 28 per cent while Green hopeful Clarke Bitter was at 5 per cent. “The campaign hasn’t really started yet. The Tories have eight-point leads — it’s not tiny and it’s not a slam dunk,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned Thursday.
Given Forum’s recent erratic to way-off results on byelection polling, this should automatically mean the race is probably neck and neck in both ridings. It will be interesting to watch Lorne’s comments through this polling period. The proclamation the Liberals were a slam dunk in the Manitoba byelection a few months back (25+ % lead on the final poll) to then claiming the Liberals blew their get out to vote when it was lost by less then 2% was quite the lame defence of a bad poll. I would hope Mr. Boizinoff would be a little more cautious with his statements.
I would also hope some other polling firm would get in there to see what they find, so we aren’t solely depending on Forum’s numbers as the polling gospel, but as with prior byelections, it appears cost and time (to set up their own methodology of polling) may prevent that.