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Your 1st polls to 2nd guess Forum on – ONT byelections

Well, as expected, Forum is polling the 2 byelections just called in Ontario, and will be providing us fodder.. er.. numbers.. to look at. Here are their first “results”:

In Thornhill, where a successor to former Tory MPP Peter Shurman will be chosen, Tory candidate Gila Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Liberal Sandra Yeung Racco.The NDP and Greens will select candidates this weekend so Forum polled using their 2011 election standard-bearers. Green Stephanie Duncan was at 10 per cent and New Democrat Cindy Hackelberg was at 7 per cent… In Niagara Falls, where the byelection is being held to find a replacement for retired Liberal MPP Kim Craitor, Tory Bart Maves, a former MPP, was at 36 per cent to 28 per cent for Liberal Joyce Morocco. New Democrat Wayne Gates, expected to be formally nominated this weekend, was also at 28 per cent while Green hopeful Clarke Bitter was at 5 per cent. “The campaign hasn’t really started yet. The Tories have eight-point leads — it’s not tiny and it’s not a slam dunk,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned Thursday.

Given Forum’s recent erratic to way-off results on byelection polling, this should automatically mean the race is probably neck and neck in both ridings. It will be interesting to watch Lorne’s comments through this polling period. The proclamation the Liberals were a slam dunk in the Manitoba byelection a few months back (25+ % lead on the final poll) to then claiming the Liberals blew their get out to vote when it was lost by less then 2% was quite the lame defence of a bad poll. I would hope Mr. Boizinoff would be a little more cautious with his statements.

I would also hope some other polling firm would get in there to see what they find, so we aren’t solely depending on Forum’s numbers as the polling gospel, but as with prior byelections, it appears cost and time (to set up their own methodology of polling) may prevent that.

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3 comments to Your 1st polls to 2nd guess Forum on – ONT byelections

  • monkey

    I would give the PCs a slight edge in both simply based on past voting patterns but I would not be the least bit surprised if the Liberals pick up Thornhill or the NDP picks up Niagara Falls. While the Liberals could win Niagara Falls, I think the NDP has a better chance than them, but it will really come down to turnout. Interestingly enough both ridings went Conservative by a landslide in the last federal election so if they are close as I suspect or the PCs lose them, it will suggest a good chunk of the Conservative vote was fairly soft that can easily move.

  • Brammer

    Forum = white noise. Zero credibility and very suspicious motives.

    http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/11/in-sundays-sun-lies-statistics-and-polls/

  • SD

    Thornhill will be a battle between the Conservative and Liberal candidates. In Niagara Falls, I do think that the race will be a three-way battle.

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