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Happy Byelection Day!

Yes, its Byelection Day in Canada, thanks to our PM Stephen Harper, who apparently wants to try to set new records for low turnout in byelections.

Nevertheless, there are fouer races to watch, with the 2 of most interest being in Trinity-Spadina and Fort-Mcmurray-Athabasca. Adam Vaughan, former TO city councillor is hoping to wrest away the former seat of Olivia Chow from the NDP. You might wonder why I’m interested in Ft Mcmurray, since its supposedly safe for the Tories; well, a) I know Kyle Harrietha – he was an early Liberal blogger and still promninenbt on social media, and I hope nothign but the best for him, and b) […]

Some Liberal bits and bites – provincial and federal

– Re-elected Premier Kathleen Wynne will be swearing in her new provincial Cabinet today. One of the chief shuffles I’m pleased to see is Dr. Eric Hoskins moving into the Health Ministry portfolio. I’ve been a long time supporter of his from his running as a federal LPC candidate in Haldimand Norfolk and before that heading up War Child Canada (now headed by his wife, Dr.Samantha Nutt). I’m also pleased to see Mitzie Hunter, who brought forth the private-members bill last session to allow ranked ballots to be used in Toronto’s civic elections, has been given a promotion to associate finance minister responsible for the new Ontario Retirement Pension Plan. […]

More women MPP’s in Ontario; will there be more women MP’s after next federal election?

One of the things I was interested in highlighting today was comparing and contrasting post-Ontario election the number of women that are now active MPP’s in the new Ontario legislature, as there have been many discussions in recent years about the lack of female representatives running or being elected to the political halls of power, and what can be done to increase that.

Specifically, the Ontario Liberal Party has elected nine new Liberal women MPP’s, and has the most elected women MPP’s in caucus. Overall in the legislature, the combined three parties have elected 38 women MPP’s representing 35.5% of the Ontario legislature – the most women ever to sit […]

Was Tim Hudak Ontario’s version of Michael Ignatieff circa 2011?

I was thinking about that comparison as I digest a surprising Liberal majority in Ontario this AM (but the folks at Forum and Ekos with their last polls called it – so kudos to them. I think Nanos also had 1 poll out that pretty well mirrored the results).

Thinking back to 2011, Harper was (and still isn’t) not a universally loved leader, but Ignatieff was less popular then him (due both to attack ads and his personality in general, I’d argue). In Ontario, the OLP as a whole were not obviously loved by all due to some of their track record, but Hudak was disliked worse, it seems.

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Ontario final polls (almost): Pick a poll you like

…and then see which one after tomorrow night comes closest (Eric Grenier of threehundreeight.com did this nice photo of all polls he’s had up to this tweet)

I said almost in the title because Ekos may have an updated poll release before midnight tonight.. but we’ll see. The Eligible voter models are more or less close… its when you get into “Likely Voters” that divergence happens. It will be very interesting to see which models work and which dont – and also the accuracy of online polls vs IVR push button polling. Unfortunately, no recent telephone polling done, so we can’t compare that methodology, but it would have been nice […]

Ontario Debate Aftermath #voteon

My initial (biased) impressions of the debate are:

– As someone who is supporting the OLP, I’d have much preferred if Wynne had started stronger, but the first two topics were always going to be the tough ones, and I’m not sure whether I’d have done much better. I did think she recovered after that and “held the line” as it were. I don’t think she was struck with any fatal blow per se. I know on social media some people were commenting on Premier Wynne’s hand movements, but I’ve always found Ms. Wynne to be a demonstrative person; she was like that at the OLP leadership convention as well. […]

Wynne & OLP have (polling) momentum going into debate

… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has been promoting their Power Index stuff for awhile, so it takes some time to scroll down and find the actual poll results. but the OLP leads by 6.5% (and at 37.7%) when you do eventually find it.

What does that mean for tonight’s debate? It’s the last chance for the NDP’s Andrea Horwath to make an impression on voters – […]

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