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Federal Byelection thoughts/roundup

It was nice to see the media punditry declare that Justin Trudeau had passed another “test” of his leadership by winning 2 seats (gaining the former NDP held Olivia Chow seat of Trinity Spadina) and having a nice increase in the Alberta seats (where sadly my colleague Kyle Harrietha just came up a bit short, but he ran a great campaign). I don’t know how many more of these tests JT has to pass however before they decide he’s for real or a threat to Harper.

Speaking of Harper, he should be ashamed of himself for deliberately putting these byelections a day before Canada Day when most folks were probably taking the Monday off and going away on vacation. He managed the dubious record of not 1 but 2 byelections with less then 20% turnout rate (ironically, both in Alberta) for the first time in byelection voting history. I’ve little doubt he was hoping lower turnout would occur in the Toronto ridings and that the Liberals would lose 1 or both – and not mattering to which party. To be sure, the electors aren’t off the hook either – but Harper didn’t help matters.

Oh, and one other thing; this election made clear one other thing: Forum Research really needs to stop putting out byelection polls – because no one is going to take them or their firm seriously. I’ve yet to see them claim the Liberals didnt get their vote out in the Fort Mcmurray-Athabasca riding, as they claimed when their Brandon-Souris poll was horribly off – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of lame excuse… an apology would be more appropriate.

1 comment to Federal Byelection thoughts/roundup

  • Ted

    I agree that Forum’s record when it comes to polling by-elections is mixed at best, but I personally would like to see them continue.

    For one thing, they’ve been able to paint a general outline of what’s happening in the race. I mean, while they completely miscalled Brandon-Souris, without their polls nobody would have thought that the Liberals had a chance of winning the riding. And in the case of Fort McMurray-Athabasca, their poll was at least correct when it showed that both the Liberals were competitive and that it would be the closest race of the night.

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