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A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes

There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes.  They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one particular pollster – Ekos – who has been the only pollster really who has been doing a weekly look at Party and Party Leader numbers. (I’ll also note they seem to conveniently put that meme away when Ekos shows a Liberal turnaround – that pollster has had the CPC and LPC flipping between 1st and 2nd the past month – but that doesn’t fit the conventional wisdom apparently)

Regardless, this paragraph snuck into Nanos’ weekly Power Index of the parties (which pundits seem to ignore no matter who does what – I think they’re waiting for an election result to see how accurate this new indicator from Nanos really is) reveals a Nanos standard party poll, and it has good news for the LPC from one of the most trusted and historically accurate pollsters out there. Also, not bad #’s on PM preference:

As you may know, Nanos does internal ballot tracking every week. Based on the four week rolling average, the Liberals are at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 per cent, the NDP at 25 per cent, the Greens at eight per cent and the BQ at four percent…For the weekly preferred Prime Minister measure Trudeau stands at 31 per cent followed by Harper at 29 per cent, Mulcair at 20 per cent, May at five per cent and 15 per cent were undecided.  Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, 52 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal while 44 per cent would consider voting NDP, 40 per cent would consider voting Conservative and 31 per cent would consider voting for the Greens

Trends on Nanos party polling can be found on Page 16 of their Weekly Power Point Index here. I don’t expect there to be newspaper column reversals of the “Liberals are sagging” meme without a couple more polls from other companies to confirm, and I don’t also say some of their criticisms of strategy shown by the Liberal leadership advisers may not have fair points, but as I’ve said before, if you’re going to base your conclusions on what results a particular pollster says – it’s also fair to acknowledge other polls that maybe show that narrative not quite accurate.

 

3 comments to A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes

  • Thanks for the Nanos link Scott, I just went through their work, and it clearly shows a significantly different narrative than what the national media have been giving us lately, doesn’t it. Seems to me that the Lib brand, the Lib leadership brand, is still showing the strongest, that while yes Mulcair and the NDP are getting a little increased strength the really major trends happening are the rise of the Green in BC and the negative pressure on Harper and his CPC, and why haven’t we been hearing anything about that last one lately? (rhetorical question) Seriously, this shows a fairly different pattern than what I’ve just spent the last week listening to/reading on the topic, and why, oh why, do I suspect I will not be hearing all that much about what Nanos has to day despite their own decent record and the fact that they look at more than just the top horserace number alone.

    I’ve got to admit, looking at the Quebec numbers reminds me of just how volatile that Province is with its voting decisions, and that this far out no one can take it for granted on their side, which to my mind means the most risk for the Mulcair NDP, which might explain in part why Mulcair thought it more important to continue campaigning there than to meet the Indian PM on the first such visit in decades (part of the job of a LOO is to show for such things in my books, whether you personally/politically like the person or not, it is part of showing you are up to being the actual head of government for such situations, but then I’m from the old school that way). Overall though this poll is mainly about the bad news for the Harper CPC than it is anything else, and as I noted at BCL’s place a few minutes ago, the fact that despite the fairly unfavourable pressures against Trudeau and the Libs since the attack on Parliament Hill last fall through to now he and his party numbers have stayed strong seems to me to indicate a fairly strong core strength that the other two parties should be really worried about.

    The worst hit Trudeau has taken I think is from his left flank and some on the right side because of his C51 stance. Personally, I think he was right to take that hit versus what the CPC would have done with it should he have done what Mulcair did, especially combined with his position on the Iraq/Syria combat idiocy (IMHO) as unfit on security and foreign policy. A lot of people forget that it was the swing centrist conservatives who also consider the Libs a viable option who swung hard for Harper in 2011 rather than join the “Orange wave/crush” that gave him the majority, and it is that vote that Trudeau needs to bring back even more than the progressive leaning swing voters, which is why Trudeau has to watch it on this file in my view.

    The Libs are a true centrist party with a willingness to consider povs and policies from both traditional Canadian conservative and progressive sides of our spectrum. That has been the key to their success as a party, and honestly Canada’s as a nation prior to the endarkenment of the Harperium. To my mind Trudeau and his party have done a fairly good job of remembering that and trying to walk that line, which in as polarized by design environment by both our PM and LOO these days is no easy task. I hope and pray it works, because we need to go back to thinking beyond binary solution sets.

  • I suppose it goes without saying, but the apparently jilted Warren Kinsella seems to be exuding just a little too much Schadenfreude at SELECTED poll numbers lately. So much for complaining about the internecine battles when he HAD influence. Warren often condemns the dark art of using ‘unnamed sources’ yet relishes in them when it suits his need. I guess we can safely call WK a bonafide hypocrite now.

    Bruised egos often cry out in vain.
    To wit http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/04/just-visiting-the-middle-class/ and http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/04/from-the-desk-of-the-senior-liberal-strategist/

  • Thanks Scott & all other LPC contributors,

    I am so grateful that U aggregate pertinent data so I, who can’t read all the major newspapers, can get info/knowledge packaged and tied w/ a lovely red bow.

    Knowledge is power— an informed citizen votes wisely. Keep it coming and I will disseminate.

    Gratefully,
    Ida
    In Alberta LPC wasteland ; but we are NOT giving up.

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