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PS – Glad to see Alberta isn’t completely blue

It appears Linda Duncan has won Edmonton-Strathcona, and given Rahim Jaffer more spare time to plan his wedding with Helena Guergis, so congrats to Linda and the progressive voters of Edmonton-Strathcona.

PS to the last posting.. only 55-60% national electoral vote turnout? That is appalling.. and it’s no wonder Harper won. His followers were motivated to come out and vote.. a lot of other Canadians apparently weren’t however.

UPDATE: I believe this would be the worst election turnout in Canadian voting history.


Ipsos: Dion is “clear winner” in French language debate.

Very nice:

The Winner

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion emerges as the clear winner of Wednesdays debate with 40% of Canadian voters who viewed the French language debate saying he won, compared with 24% who feel that Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe won, 16% who feel that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper emerged victorious, 11% who feel that NDP Leader Jack Layton won, and just 1% who feel Green Leader Elizabeth May won.

Dion also scored best in “being prime ministerial” as well as having “the best policies and ideas”, and I really liked seeing this:

Impressions of the Leaders

Subtracting worsened impressions from improved impressions, opinions of Stephane Dion improved (net +56) the most as a result of the debate, while Jack Layton (net +48) also fared well. Gilles Duceppe (net +30) also had a solid performance, according to those who watched the debate, as did Elizabeth May (net +18). Opinions of Stephen Harper plummeted (net -39) among those who viewed the debate.

Gee.. I guess the warm and fuzzy sweater stuff didn’t work when Harper actually had to have his feet held to the fire. And this could also be a good sign for Dion:

Effect of Debate on Vote

Overall, the effect of this debate on voters intentions has not been insignificant. Two in ten (20%) French-speaking Canadians who watched the debate say that they have changed their mind about who to vote for on October 14 as a result of viewing the debate.

We’ll have to see in the next week or so if that translates into Liberal poll #’s in Quebec going up, but when even Monsieur Lapierre thinks Dion won hands down, and Chantal Hebert also said he did very well, you know he had a good night and made a good impression.

Now on to the English-speaking debate. Dion reportedly kept his cool in the French debate, and he’ll need to do so again. I’ve no doubt his opponents, particularly Harper, will try to frustrate and enrage him and get him to say something that might get “lost in translation”, so it’s important that Dion not allow Harper or the others to bait him.

UPDATE @ 11:41 am: From Steve’s site – La Presse/CROP finds similar results to Ipsos.


Assorted campaign thoughts on Nanos, Liberals platform, and the CPC War Room

– The full Liberal election platform was released yesterday. There are many other bloggers who’ve released the details and explained what is there, so the only thing I’ll add to what they said or opined is that this couple of sentences in explaining the “costing” of the platform caught my eye:

The Conservative Government has not released the most recent projections of Government revenues despite the fact that this information is usually ready by the middle of September. This platform builds upon the most recent official estimates of the Government as found in Budget 2008.

Above and beyond the fact I hadn’t realized the Conservatives had delayed the revenues projection (which doesn’t surprise me in the least – and maybe someone should be asking them about that), the fact that the Liberal plans costs of their platform is based on the Conservatives last most recent estimates means that if the Cons. come out and criticize it as being “unrealistic”, they more or less are admitting their own costing figures are wrong. Perhaps that explains the almost muted response from the Conservative War Room which got them panned in the media and from observers.

– Speaking of the Conservative War Room, perhaps they just aren’t trusted enough to issue rebuttals to big events, since they apparently can’t even figure out the NDP is more then an Ottawa-based party. Who’s been assigned to the proof-reading up there in Conservative War-Room central?

– For those wondering about why Nanos has the race still fairly close as opposed to the rest of the polling firms, check out this interesting article in the Ottawa Citizen today, where Nik Nanos explains he believes it to be the methodology used.

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