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Liberals have the progressive base on their side – can they keep it?

Liberals are often accused of running (a campaign) on the left and governing right(wing). but recent polling shows that so far, the voters on the progressive left have been rather happy with the Justin Trudeau Government.

This article here by Eric Grenier highlights an Innovative Research Poll that shows the core groups that are considered left wing voters (“core left,” “left liberals” and the “populist left.” is how Innovative has classified them) abandoned the NDP in droves for the Liberals in October’s election, and that support has deepened. There is also this mention of an Abacus Poll showing a similar trend:

A recent poll by Abacus Data also hints at […]

Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis of this one poll – that the Liberals were in a bit of trouble. Fortunately though, they still had a few months to do something.

Curiously, an Ekos poll was released a couple of days later that, while the Liberals were still down to the Conservatives (a 3 pt deficit), that had stayed more or […]

On phone polling vs internet panels

An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts).

Why was his polling better then every other public domain pollster? He says it’s because he used traditional phone polling, not these internet panels:

Pantazopoulos says where his findings differ from the other pollsters is that he relies entirely on traditional telephone polling rather than online research. He says that approach allows him to access a wider swath of the electorate. “Every resident of the province with a phone line […]

Ontario leaders debate tonight is big

We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20’s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.

Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on the […]

When pollsters go after each other.

As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:

Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere dupes […]

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