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Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

Byelection observations: Keep an eye on Brandon later today.

I say that because PM Harper is in Winnipeg this (last) evening at the Jets game. It will be extremely interesting to see whether he pops in to Brandon-Souris tomorrow to personally campaign or not for the local Conservative candidate. The fact a personalized brochure was mailed out from the CPC to the riding voters shows they are rather concerned with the outcome of this vote.

If he shows up there, it might solidify notions the Conservatives are in trouble here; sitting PM’s rarely heavily campaign in by-elections, if at all. On the other hand, they may not bring him in if they feel it’s a lost cause; no […]

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