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Happy Byelection Day!

Yes, its Byelection Day in Canada, thanks to our PM Stephen Harper, who apparently wants to try to set new records for low turnout in byelections.

Nevertheless, there are fouer races to watch, with the 2 of most interest being in Trinity-Spadina and Fort-Mcmurray-Athabasca. Adam Vaughan, former TO city councillor is hoping to wrest away the former seat of Olivia Chow from the NDP. You might wonder why I’m interested in Ft Mcmurray, since its supposedly safe for the Tories; well, a) I know Kyle Harrietha – he was an early Liberal blogger and still promninenbt on social media, and I hope nothign but the best for him, and b) […]

Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

Byelection observations: Keep an eye on Brandon later today.

I say that because PM Harper is in Winnipeg this (last) evening at the Jets game. It will be extremely interesting to see whether he pops in to Brandon-Souris tomorrow to personally campaign or not for the local Conservative candidate. The fact a personalized brochure was mailed out from the CPC to the riding voters shows they are rather concerned with the outcome of this vote.

If he shows up there, it might solidify notions the Conservatives are in trouble here; sitting PM’s rarely heavily campaign in by-elections, if at all. On the other hand, they may not bring him in if they feel it’s a lost cause; no […]

Don’t underestimate Jennifer Hollett in Toronto-Center

You may recognize/remember Jennifer Hollett from her MuchMusic VJ days. She has done more then that since then, including a stint as a contributor at CBC Newsworld (Connect with Mark Kelley), did some reporting with CBC Radio, and a ton of other stuff. She’s also a social media guru/geek (and I mean that in a good way). I’ve followed her on her Twitter account for awhile now.

Recently (well, recently to me; I remember I asked her on Twitter about it), she declared herself an NDP supporter; she was doing some social media stuff for their party not too long ago (and you’ll forgive me for not remembering what the […]

Byelections date set for Sept 8th

Just saw this come over the newswire as well as in an email from a high-ranking Liberal that the byelections in Guelph, Westmount and St Lambert are set for Sept 8th.

Guelph will be of particular interest to me, since I went to University there and lived there for a good stretch, and because I was involved in the Liberal nomination race there from a distance.  It will be interesting to hear the local Conservatives explain how Brent Barr wasn’t apparently a good enough candidate for the national Conservatives, who removed the democratically elected candidate by the local riding association  in a coup-d’etat in order to install Gloria Kovachs in there, who they had preferred from the outset.  Apparently, they think she gives them a better chance of winning that riding, but we shall see.

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