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A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes

There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes. They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one particular pollster – Ekos – who has been the only pollster really who has been doing a weekly look at Party and Party Leader numbers. (I’ll also note they seem to conveniently put that meme away when Ekos shows a Liberal turnaround – that pollster has had the CPC and LPC flipping between 1st and 2nd the past month – […]

Either Nanos is a Liberal shill too, or his poll confirms Ekos numbers

The first part of my title is a tad facetious; it refers to the fact whenever Ekos polls come out that show very close results (such as the one last Friday showing a virtual dead heat), Conservative commentators copycat the Kory Teynecke line accusing Frank Graves (Ekos president) of being a “Liberal shill”; so therefore his poll results must be biased against Conservatives. That’s the reasoning, such as it is, that I’ve seen online from our shrill Conservative supporters.

Well, we now have a Nanos poll out for the first time in months, and guess what, their numbers are also a virtual tie:

A long summer of Tory controversies, from […]

Well,well,well – What have we here. A virtual tie

It’s only one poll, and some of the regional shifts/swings seem dramatic, which may be the signs of a very volatile electorate, but we now have a virtual tie in the newest Ekos poll released today.

An interesting analysis from Frank Graves on the reasons he thinks the numbers have shifted the way they have:

“It’s all because of the government’s decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census, pollster Frank Graves says. “The direct testing suggests that the census initiative has gone over with a massive thud,” he said. “It is receiving near universal …raspberries from a flummoxed electorate.”

How badly are they flummoxed? Kady:

..a good chunk of […]

Maybe there really ARE Canadians who care about the Census.

You might recall that Canadian Press report a few days ago where unnamed Conservative MP’s/sources dismissed the census controversy as an issue that Canadians don’t care about, and that it would fade away.

It may, but before it does, it appears to have caused a big hit in Conservative popularity, at least in the latest Ekos poll: The CBC’s title for this is “Conservative lead dries up, poll suggests”, and it details what it calls the evaporation of the Conservatives lead. The Conservatives have 29.7% support, while the Liberals received 28.5%. This is a 3% drop from the last Ekos poll, and a 3% gain for the Liberals from last […]

Environics poll shows political horserace. CPC 35, LPC 32, NDP 15

It’s a lot closer then other polls released recently currently have shown, so don’t be surprised if the wise pundits on the Hill and elsewhere across the land either ignore it or dismiss it – because it doesn’t fit their narrative of the Liberals sinking away and Ignatieff in trouble. It may very well be a “rogue” poll, but if an Ekos poll shows a sudden plunge in Liberal support – one that even the Conservative Party doubted, but still set the media on an Iggy deathwatch – then an Environics poll showing a virtual tie should also be discussed at face value by the media.

A prelude blogpost

I thought I’d put up a brief blogpost this afternoon, as there will be a more significant blogpost later after 4 pm EDT – a bit of a prelude in itself, which is all I’ll say at the moment about that.

Somethings catching my attention today:

-When you’re in a minority government situation, and you’re trying to pass legislation which is not of the non-confidence variety, calling critics of the proposed bill “radical extremists”, as James Moore called those who oppose the government’s copyright bill, is an extremely unhelpful and unproductive way of advancing debate on the issue. (Trying to deny you made the remark later, only to be […]

Interesting last Ekos poll and commentary before Parliament’s summer break

This poll is a day old in its release, but I found it noteworthy for a couple of reasons:

One reason is this:

(This) EKOS poll gives the Conservatives 30.5 per cent support from Canadians, compared to 26.3 per cent for the Liberals. The Tories have been sliding over the past few weeks, losing the 10-point lead they enjoyed over the Liberals not so long ago. The NDP, meanwhile, are at 17.4 per cent, compared to the Green Party at 12.3 per cent; the Bloc is at 10.5 per cent.

“Their (the Harper Conservatives) current vote intention is the lowest since they took office and the leading direction of federal-government […]

A couple tales of the tape.

That title is NOT a reference to the suddenly-back-in-the-news Wafergate thing, although I suppose it could be (by the way, I think I like BCL’s term for it better; ‘cracker caper’). However, if you’re looking for tape on that and a recap of a story that proves it’s summertime around here, and that both media and politicians are looking for something to make news, read Jeff’s piece. (Plus, you can read how some Conservative supporting folks have gone way over the edge on this story and may end up losing a bit of money, dignity, or both. Then again, this is Lifesite news, so I’m not surprised).

No, my title […]

It’s only one poll…

… and we must never jump to conclusions too soon on only one poll, but traditionally when Parliament is not sitting, the governing party’s poll fortunes rise. We have also seen the Cons. unleash the “tax on everything!” attack on the Liberal’s Green Shift, but in this particular poll’s results, it appears that neither scenario is in play:

The Canadian Press, Harris-Decima survey suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead in support in Ontario and Quebec, crucial battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of a nationwide vote. Nationally, Liberal support was up slightly to 33 per cent, statistically tied with the Tories at 32 per cent and followed by the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens at six per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals were statistically tied with the Bloc Quebecois, at 30 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, followed by the Tories at 24 per cent, the Greens at 8 per cent and the NDP at 6 per cent. In Ontario, the Liberals enjoyed a healthy lead with 40 per cent, compared to the Tories with 31 per cent and the NDP and Greens with 14 per cent each.

Perhaps Canadians are also paying a bit more attention to Conservative shenanigans then some think – and not liking it. This poll was taken just as the Ethics Committee investigation into the Conservatives “in and out” electoral financing scheme was getting started up, and the polling was completed before all the delicious testimony of former Conservative candidates and silly Conservative stunts like what Doug Finley tried to pull on Monday. It will be interesting to see if this testimony has any more of a negative impact on Conservative polling numbers. It will also be interesting to see if the poll numbers hold any relevance for the three byelections and how voters vote in those ridings on Sept 8th.

You don’t need me to remind you what my views on pulling the plug on Harper and his government are, do you?

I will anyhow.

ASAP.

[email protected]:42 pm: I saw her blogpost earlier, but stuff like this that Danielle commented about at her blog probably doesn’t thrill Canadians much either.

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