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Nanos and Ipsos closes the Conservative-Liberal gap; Decima widens it.

Conclusion? It’s extremely volatile and fluid out there as to who is going to vote for who (with the exception of Quebec, where it seems voters are convinced they aren’t going to vote en masse for Harper.

Decima has the Cons. extending their lead to 10 here. Nanos has the gap narrowing to 4 here. Ipsos-Reid has the gap drastically narrowing to 5 from a 14 point Conservative lead taken in their poll last week here. Note the different margins in the Maritimes and Ontario for all the 3 polls, and you’ll see why it’s very fluid.

I hate to use cliches, but the winner of the election, and by […]

Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

– The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

– The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

– The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

– The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest of […]

Decima drops the Cons. lead on the Liberals to 4 points today.

The new Harris-Decima poll shows a narrowing gap of 4 between the Cons and the Liberals based on, you guessed it, economic worries:

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Harper’s Conservatives 31 per cent support across Canada, just four percentage points clear of the resurgent Liberals. The New Democrats had 20 per cent support, with the Greens at 12 and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent. Four of every 10 respondents – particularly women, city-dwellers and older, affluent voters – say the roller-coaster markets are causing them to rethink their vote, largely at the expense of the Tories, said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

The Liberals remain well clear of the Cons. in Ontario, the Cons remain mired in 3rd place in Quebec, and here might be the most important part of the poll:

Wednesday’s poll also suggested newfound support for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, who is “marginally more popular” than Harper for the first time in the campaign, Anderson noted. Positive impressions of Dion stood at 41 per cent, with 48 per cent of respondents reporting the opposite. Some 51 per cent of respondents said they had a negative impression of Harper, while 40 per cent were positive.

This poll was taken, I suspect, before the nation got to hear the PM tell everyone that people were panicking and there were great buying opportunities out there in the stock market. I’ll be interested to see how that comment reverberates with the Canadian public over the next day or 2.

UPDATE @ 11:40 am: Haha. Great snark by Kady O’Malley:

…for the first time ever, the Most Leaderiest Prime Minister in the History of Ever is one point below the European-schooled sociologist when it comes to having a “favourable impression” : 40% – a new low – with Not A Leader at 41%

Polls tighten further: Cons lead in Nanos down to 3!

Dare I say it, the Conservatives are in real danger now; forget their hopes for a majority, they are in peril of losing the government altogether, IF the trends hold that Nanos is showing today:

CP 34%, Lib 31%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, GP 6%

Pollster Nik Nanos comments on the new numbers:

The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario – potentially an “echo effect” from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday night’s English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something.

Looking at the regionals, and to show what Nik is talking about, the Liberals have now taken a 9 point lead in Ontario and have reached the 40% mark for the first time in quite awhile. While the Cons have recovered a bit in Quebec, the BQ has amazingly shot up to 46%. There even appears to be mdoest recovery out West for the Liberals.. though where is hard to determine in a regional poll.

By the way, Decima is also showing the race to be closing – they have the Con lead on the Liberals down to 5 points., and they mirror the Liberal resurgence and the Con. drop in Ontario and to a lesser extent in Quebec. The difference with their poll seems to be that they have the Cons in a 1 point MOE (Margin of Error) lead in the Maritimes, while Nanos has the Liberals leading by 6 there.

This is officially a horse race, folks, which as I said at the start shows the Harper government in real danger of losing their governing status – and that’s probably why Harper seemed (to me anyway) so angry and even desperate today at his platform press conference (flip-flopping on the film tax credits for example and now saying he’d cancel that, and threatening in effect to re-open the Constitution and abolish the Senate if he and his party doesn’t get his way on Senate “reform”.

More on the Harper “platform” (if it can be called that) later.

Nanos narrows to 4 points. Someone tell the media there’s a race!

Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope of […]

Followup: NDP hypothetical official opposition status currently not happening according to Decima or Nanos.

If the latest 2 polls released today from Decima and Nanos are an accurate indicator of a Liberal turnaround in the polls and not just statistical noise, then all we engaged in the last blogpost of mine was some fun hypothetical situations.

Harper showed his “not likable streak” last week that he’s more or less masked this election, and that may have helped to trim the poll gap, as progressive moderate voters got reminded just what a nasty angry mean Conservative Party this is, led by a nasty angry mean leader. That positive momentum for the Liberals needs to be kept up. Keep the gap to single digits […]

Nanos Poll: Gap narrows to 6 points, Liberals release new ad.

There are a lot of polls out there. You also have a lot of newspapers declaring this and that over their particular poll they’ve sponsored without mentioning a thing about other polls that may contradict their specific pollster’s narrative. See the doom and gloom predictions of the Toronto Star and Jim Travers in this past Saturday edition for evidence of that.

Well, Nanos has come out with their tracking poll today, and it shows a tightening of the race down to 6 points between the Liberals and the Cons, down from 8 points the past 2 days. Note also the big undecided vote in that poll – this election is still in play, despite what some in the media would have you think. Decima is still showing a good lead for the Cons, but their poll is also trending well for the Liberals (they have gained back 6 points against the Cons in the past 2 Decima polls), and as BigCityLib and Steve say, the Conservatives policies and such may be coming under greater scrutiny now by the electorate… and the warm and fuzzy sweater ads may be wearing off.

With all that said, the timing of this new ad below to be played in the English language market by the Liberals is well-timed, in my view. It’s a little harder in tone, which I think is going to be necessary, but exudes a positive frame at the end.  Keep hitting them where it hurts, as Warren K. opines today, and don’t be afraid to hit hard.

UPDATE @ 3:52 pm: Warren approves of the new ad.

Bad (pre)election optics for Harper and the Conservatives.

Let’s list those bad optics as I see them:

– Two polls come out yesterday from Decima and the election guru, Nanos, showing the Liberals leading within the margin of error. Both breakdowns in regional vote would lead to a Liberal minority government if they were to translate to Election Day.

– You have the tainted meat scandal; “Deli-Gate”, as some are calling it. Up to 15 people possibly dead, with the Health Minister Tony Clement in Denver not bothering to return to address the crisis, all while cracking food jokes and meeting with American Big Oil over the Alberta tar-sands. Plus, a document revealed to show that the Conservatives […]

It’s only one poll…

… and we must never jump to conclusions too soon on only one poll, but traditionally when Parliament is not sitting, the governing party’s poll fortunes rise.  We have also seen the Cons. unleash the “tax on everything!” attack on the Liberal’s Green Shift, but in this particular poll’s results, it appears that neither scenario is in play:

The Canadian Press, Harris-Decima survey suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead in support in Ontario and Quebec, crucial battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of a nationwide vote. Nationally, Liberal support was up slightly to 33 per cent, statistically tied with the Tories at 32 per cent and followed by the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens at six per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals were statistically tied with the Bloc Quebecois, at 30 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, followed by the Tories at 24 per cent, the Greens at 8 per cent and the NDP at 6 per cent. In Ontario, the Liberals enjoyed a healthy lead with 40 per cent, compared to the Tories with 31 per cent and the NDP and Greens with 14 per cent each.

Perhaps Canadians are also paying a bit more attention to Conservative shenanigans then some think – and not liking it. This poll was taken just as the Ethics Committee investigation into the Conservatives “in and out” electoral financing scheme was getting started up, and the polling was completed before all the delicious testimony of former Conservative candidates and silly Conservative stunts like what Doug Finley tried to pull on Monday. It will be interesting to see if this testimony has any more of a negative impact on Conservative polling numbers. It will also be interesting to see if the poll numbers hold any relevance  for the three byelections and how voters vote in those ridings on Sept 8th.

You don’t need me to remind you what my views on pulling the plug on Harper and his government are, do you?

I will anyhow.

ASAP.

[email protected]:42 pm: I saw her blogpost earlier, but stuff like this that Danielle commented about at her blog probably doesn’t thrill Canadians much either.

Libs and Cons deadlocked in new Decima Poll. Will Chantal Hebert mention it?

Apparently, according to some readers, I only bring up polls I like on this blog. First off, I’ll mention that Angus Reid released an (online) poll for the Toronto Star the past couple of days that showed the Cons. up by 10 over the Liberals, had the NDP near 20%, and which seemingly put Chantal Hebert into overdrive mode at the Star in her op-ed columns claiming this poll showed that the Liberals and Dion were dead in Quebec; she was already doing this after the CROP/La Presse poll came out earlier that had the Liberals down by 10 to the Cons. and BQ in Quebec.

This was done a week or so after another column where she played down other polls which showed Conservative strength much lower in Quebec and had her arguing those polls didn’t match what was heard and seen on the ground (which curiously enough, is what Antonio over at Fuddle-Duddle has been claiming as well to me as well – coincidence?). So, I’ll be very interested to see if the new Harris-Decima poll gets mentioned by her – or others – that shows another polling deadlock:

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