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Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis of this one poll – that the Liberals were in a bit of trouble. Fortunately though, they still had a few months to do something.

Curiously, an Ekos poll was released a couple of days later that, while the Liberals were still down to the Conservatives (a 3 pt deficit), that had stayed more or […]

Contradictory polls

So we have a couple of polls out today: Ekos (who is behind a paywall) has the CPC suddenly leading by 3% 35-32 over the LPC due to a sudden “surge” in support for them in Quebec – 26% or so. Meanwhile, Leger (who is not behind a paywall) has the exact opposite result; the LPC up by 3 nationally, and the Conservatives down in the traditional teens where they’ve been for awhile (excepting Forum and Ekos.. and I’m a tad sceptical – particularly of Forum). We’ve had other polls come out the past week from Abacus and Nanos (released by mistake) that show neck and neck or slight leads […]

The closing days of the Ontario campaign

Only a few days left until Ontario voters get out to vote for their next provincial government, and the polls that came out on the weekend still had a neck and neck race. Ekos released a new poll this AM which seemed to indicate the Liberals were pulling away just a tad, but it still is close.

It will be interesting from my standpoint to see a) which polls were closest (online, IVR or traditional phone) and also the similarities/differences to the Ontario vote from the federal election in May, and what can be learned from that.

Also, with regards to a rumour of Harper coming to Toronto to directly […]

Ontario leaders debate tonight is big

We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20’s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.

Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on the […]

If younger voters had bothered to vote in Ontario, Harper would have lost.

There was some conventional wisdom out there in pundit land that in the last few days of the May election, the Conservatives and Harper bit of fear-mongering that the NDP might be elected to government caused right-leaning Liberals to turn and vote Conservative in order to stop this, thus causing the vote splits in Toronto and such that ensured a Harper majority.

According to a study by Ekos, however, that was not the case:

In his post-election analysis, which he presented to a polling conference in Ottawa last week, Mr. Graves says that his sample of 1,000 voters in Ontario did not find a respondent who shifted to the Conservatives […]

Either Nanos is a Liberal shill too, or his poll confirms Ekos numbers

The first part of my title is a tad facetious; it refers to the fact whenever Ekos polls come out that show very close results (such as the one last Friday showing a virtual dead heat), Conservative commentators copycat the Kory Teynecke line accusing Frank Graves (Ekos president) of being a “Liberal shill”; so therefore his poll results must be biased against Conservatives. That’s the reasoning, such as it is, that I’ve seen online from our shrill Conservative supporters.

Well, we now have a Nanos poll out for the first time in months, and guess what, their numbers are also a virtual tie:

A long summer of Tory controversies, from […]

Well,well,well – What have we here. A virtual tie

It’s only one poll, and some of the regional shifts/swings seem dramatic, which may be the signs of a very volatile electorate, but we now have a virtual tie in the newest Ekos poll released today.

An interesting analysis from Frank Graves on the reasons he thinks the numbers have shifted the way they have:

“It’s all because of the government’s decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census, pollster Frank Graves says. “The direct testing suggests that the census initiative has gone over with a massive thud,” he said. “It is receiving near universal …raspberries from a flummoxed electorate.”

How badly are they flummoxed? Kady:

..a good chunk of […]

Maybe there really ARE Canadians who care about the Census.

You might recall that Canadian Press report a few days ago where unnamed Conservative MP’s/sources dismissed the census controversy as an issue that Canadians don’t care about, and that it would fade away.

It may, but before it does, it appears to have caused a big hit in Conservative popularity, at least in the latest Ekos poll: The CBC’s title for this is “Conservative lead dries up, poll suggests”, and it details what it calls the evaporation of the Conservatives lead. The Conservatives have 29.7% support, while the Liberals received 28.5%. This is a 3% drop from the last Ekos poll, and a 3% gain for the Liberals from last […]

A prelude blogpost

I thought I’d put up a brief blogpost this afternoon, as there will be a more significant blogpost later after 4 pm EDT – a bit of a prelude in itself, which is all I’ll say at the moment about that.

Somethings catching my attention today:

-When you’re in a minority government situation, and you’re trying to pass legislation which is not of the non-confidence variety, calling critics of the proposed bill “radical extremists”, as James Moore called those who oppose the government’s copyright bill, is an extremely unhelpful and unproductive way of advancing debate on the issue. (Trying to deny you made the remark later, only to be […]

Interesting last Ekos poll and commentary before Parliament’s summer break

This poll is a day old in its release, but I found it noteworthy for a couple of reasons:

One reason is this:

(This) EKOS poll gives the Conservatives 30.5 per cent support from Canadians, compared to 26.3 per cent for the Liberals. The Tories have been sliding over the past few weeks, losing the 10-point lead they enjoyed over the Liberals not so long ago. The NDP, meanwhile, are at 17.4 per cent, compared to the Green Party at 12.3 per cent; the Bloc is at 10.5 per cent.

“Their (the Harper Conservatives) current vote intention is the lowest since they took office and the leading direction of federal-government […]

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