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Posted by Scott Tribe on January 28, 2010, at 12:24 am |
This Ekos poll was released tonight, and you’ll be seeing plenty of it on CBC later today, since it was done for them. The Liberals have crept into a “statistically insignificant lead”, but a lead nonetheless – the first since August 2009. The numbers are:
31.6% LPC 31.1% CPC 14.6% NDP 11.0% Green 9.1% BQ (37% in Quebec) 2.6% Other
Some of the key analysis from Frank Graves that I find rather striking:
“At this stage it is probably safe to say that despite considerable initial confusion over whether the government’s problems were ephemeral or structural the evidence is that there has been a significant shift..the fact that prorogation [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on January 14, 2010, at 8:52 am |
Ekos released a poll today, and again, the Conservatives and Liberals are in a Margin Of Error dead heat, as per Kady O’Malley:
Conservatives: 30.9 (-2.2) Liberals: 29.3 (+1.5) New Democrats: 15.3 (-0.7) Green: 11.9 (-1.6) Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 40.7 (+2.5) Other: 2.3 (-) Undecided: 14.0
Some analysis from Ms. O’Malley:
Any way you slice, dice, parse or dissect it, though, these numbers would suggest that this whole prorogation thing may not be working out quite as well as the prime minister might have hoped. Unless, of course, you heed those who are of the firm opinion that this has nothing to do with prorogation at all, since [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on January 7, 2010, at 8:36 am |
Kady O’Malley of CBC details the EKOS poll that has just come out this AM, which shows a Conservative drop and the Liberals now only trailing the Conseratives by 5 percentage points:
Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8) Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1) NDP: 16.0 (-1.0) Green: 13.4 (+2.2) Bloc Quebecois: 9.8 (+0.6) Undecided: 14.7
Regionally, the Liberals have managed to take back the lead in Ontario – the first time in a long time in an Ekos poll – and the Cons have really slipped back in Quebec (specific numbers available at the aforementioned and linked to Kady article).
Speaking of Kady, her analysis of the poll:
…let’s take a moment to ponder [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 8, 2009, at 1:28 pm |
I won’t sugar-coat my views on things; the latest set of polls are not good for those of us in the Liberal camp. The latest includes today’s Ekos poll release, that has a few of us Liberal-allied blogs smarting. I’m sure the Liberal politicians and strategists are smarting even worse.
I have a few qualifiers over these polling disappointments – I’m still not convinced we’d have seen this big of a drop-off if the Liberals had managed to force an election the past 2 weeks. I think people would have been grumpy and then gotten on to accepting it. However, it’s obvious that the charge that the Liberals and [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on July 30, 2009, at 12:49 pm |
That title is NOT a reference to the suddenly-back-in-the-news Wafergate thing, although I suppose it could be (by the way, I think I like BCL’s term for it better; ‘cracker caper’). However, if you’re looking for tape on that and a recap of a story that proves it’s summertime around here, and that both media and politicians are looking for something to make news, read Jeff’s piece. (Plus, you can read how some Conservative supporting folks have gone way over the edge on this story and may end up losing a bit of money, dignity, or both. Then again, this is Lifesite news, so I’m not surprised).
No, my [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on July 9, 2009, at 11:23 am |
So here’s your new weekly poll from Ekos:
National federal vote intention: ¤ 32.2% LPC ¤ 31.8% CPC ¤ 16.0% NDP ¤ 10.7% Green ¤ 9.3% BQ
A full provincial breakdown is at the Ekos link. Basically, the Liberals have a lead based on their improved stance in Ontario, and it’s your basic stalemate for the summer poll. basically. I will however note the last day of their tracking poll shows a spike for the Liberals; did Wafer-Gate affect that? Probably not, but it’s such a blase poll result, there’s not much else to talk about. Heck, even Ekos is forced to say that Ignatieff wooing Albertans isn’t working [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on July 2, 2009, at 11:36 am |
An apparent national stalemate between the 2 largest parties, with the smaller parties gaining some ground:
LPC 32.2% (32.6% last week), CPC 31% (34.8%), NDP 16.2% (14.3), GPC 11.5% (9.3%), BQ 9% (9%)
There have been some shifts here and there in regional areas (The Conservatives seem to have slumped back in Ontario and Quebec), but as the pollster says, nothing much is happening for any party:
Overall, however, the most striking pattern may be one of gridlock, in which neither major party can break through to become an obvious election favourite, much less a contender for a majority government. “One peculiar feature of the gridlock is that the [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on June 11, 2009, at 9:48 am |
I call this little staged presentation being done today Magna 2:
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to present a rosy picture of his Conservative government’s handling of the recession Thursday in a slick made-for-TV presentation designed to forestall a quick summer election…The presentation will be moderated by Senator Mike Duffy, a former television journalist, and feature Harper, flanked by Human Resources Minister Diane Finley and Gary Goodyear, the local MP and Minister of State for Science. It will include a staged interview segment between Harper and Duffy.
I call it Magna 2 because it’s very eerily similar to what the Ontario Conservative government did in 2003 when [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on May 20, 2009, at 4:32 pm |
Well.. I just got polled by Ekos Research. It was an automated call, with a series of questions. One of the more interesting ones was whether I supported the idea of high-speed rail between Calgary and Edmonton and the Southern Ontario 401 corridor ( I answered “strongly support”).
They also asked of course who I’d vote for and who would make the best PM, so if there’s a bump in Liberal support in the next Ekos poll, I can take a minute bit of credit for it. [superemotions file="icon_biggrin.gif" title="Big Grin"]
Posted by Scott Tribe on April 16, 2009, at 5:53 pm |
Well now, this is the first poll I’ve seen since Ignatieff became leader that shows the Liberals have opened up a lead on the governing Conservatives outside of a poll’s margin of error:
Asked which party they would support if an election were held tomorrow, 36.7 opted for the Liberals while 30.2 per cent chose the Conservatives. About 15.5 per cent supported the NDP, while the Green party was the choice of 8.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois was backed by 9.4 per cent. A similar poll question was asked just after the December prorogation crisis, when the minority Conservative government almost fell in the face of a [...]
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