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No Olympic Bounce in new Ekos poll

The small lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals remains the same as in last week’s Ekos poll. In fact, both of the 2 major parties numbers marginally dropped.

With that, and with the fact 2 other polls have shown the same small lead/deadlock, I believe it’s not unfair in presuming/asserting that one can now say with some confidence that Ipsos-Reid was an outlier poll on the so-called “Conservative Olympic Bounce”, and/or that it was just showing its trend of polling Conservative support higher then the other major Canadian polling outfits (I believe Nanos is the last regular polling outfit that has yet to report out a poll post-Olympics).

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Best description ever of Harper's prorogation mistake.

Realizing that prorogation was the worst political mistake since Pierre Trudeau handed John Turner a list of his friends to find jobs for, the PMO is starting to throw furniture out the windows, in a vain attempt to get the Langevin Block to levitate.

Courtesy of Greg over at Mr Sinister, who has a bit more following that great description on the PMO hoping cancelling all upcoming holiday breaks will get Canadians to forgive and forget their blunder. At the moment though, more new polling from Ekos today shows they aren’t in such a hurry to do so. Liberals have marginally increased their lead nationally, and lead in several key […]

Ekos poll: Liberals take the lead (half point); detects 'significant shift'

This Ekos poll was released tonight, and you’ll be seeing plenty of it on CBC later today, since it was done for them. The Liberals have crept into a “statistically insignificant lead”, but a lead nonetheless – the first since August 2009. The numbers are:

31.6% LPC 31.1% CPC 14.6% NDP 11.0% Green 9.1% BQ (37% in Quebec) 2.6% Other

Some of the key analysis from Frank Graves that I find rather striking:

“At this stage it is probably safe to say that despite considerable initial confusion over whether the government’s problems were ephemeral or structural the evidence is that there has been a significant shift..the fact that prorogation backfired […]

Yet another poll release showing there are lots of anti-prorogue elitists in Canada

Ekos released a poll today, and again, the Conservatives and Liberals are in a Margin Of Error dead heat, as per Kady O’Malley:

Conservatives: 30.9 (-2.2) Liberals: 29.3 (+1.5) New Democrats: 15.3 (-0.7) Green: 11.9 (-1.6) Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 40.7 (+2.5) Other: 2.3 (-) Undecided: 14.0

Some analysis from Ms. O’Malley:

Any way you slice, dice, parse or dissect it, though, these numbers would suggest that this whole prorogation thing may not be working out quite as well as the prime minister might have hoped. Unless, of course, you heed those who are of the firm opinion that this has nothing to do with prorogation at all, since Canadians […]

EKOS poll: The first hints of discontent with Harper's prorogue?

Kady O’Malley of CBC details the EKOS poll that has just come out this AM, which shows a Conservative drop and the Liberals now only trailing the Conseratives by 5 percentage points:

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8) Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1) NDP: 16.0 (-1.0) Green: 13.4 (+2.2) Bloc Quebecois: 9.8 (+0.6) Undecided: 14.7

Regionally, the Liberals have managed to take back the lead in Ontario – the first time in a long time in an Ekos poll – and the Cons have really slipped back in Quebec (specific numbers available at the aforementioned and linked to Kady article).

Speaking of Kady, her analysis of the poll:

…let’s take a moment to ponder the […]

The time isn't to panic.. the time is to rethink strategy.

I won’t sugar-coat my views on things; the latest set of polls are not good for those of us in the Liberal camp. The latest includes today’s Ekos poll release, that has a few of us Liberal-allied blogs smarting. I’m sure the Liberal politicians and strategists are smarting even worse.

I have a few qualifiers over these polling disappointments – I’m still not convinced we’d have seen this big of a drop-off if the Liberals had managed to force an election the past 2 weeks. I think people would have been grumpy and then gotten on to accepting it. However, it’s obvious that the charge that the Liberals and Ignatieff […]

A couple tales of the tape.

That title is NOT a reference to the suddenly-back-in-the-news Wafergate thing, although I suppose it could be (by the way, I think I like BCL’s term for it better; ‘cracker caper’). However, if you’re looking for tape on that and a recap of a story that proves it’s summertime around here, and that both media and politicians are looking for something to make news, read Jeff’s piece. (Plus, you can read how some Conservative supporting folks have gone way over the edge on this story and may end up losing a bit of money, dignity, or both. Then again, this is Lifesite news, so I’m not surprised).

No, my title […]

Status quo in new Ekos poll.

So here’s your new weekly poll from Ekos:

National federal vote intention: ¤ 32.2% LPC ¤ 31.8% CPC ¤ 16.0% NDP ¤ 10.7% Green ¤ 9.3% BQ

A full provincial breakdown is at the Ekos link. Basically, the Liberals have a lead based on their improved stance in Ontario, and it’s your basic stalemate for the summer poll. basically. I will however note the last day of their tracking poll shows a spike for the Liberals; did Wafer-Gate affect that? 😉 Probably not, but it’s such a blase poll result, there’s not much else to talk about. Heck, even Ekos is forced to say that Ignatieff wooing Albertans isn’t working […]

Latest Ekos poll shows…?

An apparent national stalemate between the 2 largest parties, with the smaller parties gaining some ground:

LPC 32.2% (32.6% last week), CPC 31% (34.8%), NDP 16.2% (14.3), GPC 11.5% (9.3%), BQ 9% (9%)

There have been some shifts here and there in regional areas (The Conservatives seem to have slumped back in Ontario and Quebec), but as the pollster says, nothing much is happening for any party:

Overall, however, the most striking pattern may be one of gridlock, in which neither major party can break through to become an obvious election favourite, much less a contender for a majority government. “One peculiar feature of the gridlock is that the Liberals […]

Magna 2 and Raitt-gate’s effect on polling.

I call this little staged presentation being done today Magna 2:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to present a rosy picture of his Conservative government’s handling of the recession Thursday in a slick made-for-TV presentation designed to forestall a quick summer election…The presentation will be moderated by Senator Mike Duffy, a former television journalist, and feature Harper, flanked by Human Resources Minister Diane Finley and Gary Goodyear, the local MP and Minister of State for Science. It will include a staged interview segment between Harper and Duffy.

I call it Magna 2 because it’s very eerily similar to what the Ontario Conservative government did in 2003 when it […]

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