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Not to be redundant.. but Ontario and BC are the key tonight.

You’ve probably heard that a million times already, both from bloggers and election pundits and mainstream media types, but the ridings I will be watching  in particular tonight  are the 905 ridings – the suburban ridings outside of Metro Toronto – and the lower mainland and island ridings of BC. The key to who wins the election and/or by how much are in those  belt of ridings.

Election Prediction Project , which had a 91% accuracy rate last federal election in predicting what ridings would go to which party, currently has predicted the 905 ridings as ending up with 16 Libs,  12 Cons, and 3 NDP.

Greg Morrow’s blog also is running an election projections site. It is so popular as a matter of fact that he’s currently having server issues to his blog, but his predictions are still accessible here. His predictions for the 905 are a bit more confusing, optics wise, as his “905” seats don’t include all the ridings that actually use the 905 area code (he’s put the Durham riding into “Eastern Ontario” as an example, and taken out the Hamilton 905 ridings and lumped them into a “Hamilton/Niagara” section, that includes some 519 ridings), but if you putter around and find all the ridings that use area code 905 at his page, his blog is predicting (with some “too close to call” caveats): Libs 17,  Cons 11,  NDP 3.

If the Liberals are going to have a good election night, they’ll be winning seats like Conservative held St. Catherines and Burlington.. and they need to hold their close seats like Oakville and Mississauga-South. If it’s the other way around though, a long night is in store – for Liberals anyhow.  Some believe Ontario may have started to shift toward the Liberals in the past day, (and you see a hint of that in the last Nanos poll yesterday)  but we’ll see if that really happened or not after the election results roll in tonight.

BC is the other battleground to watch. Initially, there were whispering that the Liberals might be reduced to a couple of seats, but polling there seems to have indicated they have recovered. I know some of my NDP blogging colleagues are predicting losses there for the Liberals (and rather gleefully too, I might add, which is a tad appalling to me, considering that if those losses were to occur, they’d all be going to the Conservatives, not the NDP, which gives you an inkling that some in the NDP camp and blogging community consider the Liberals worse enemies then the Conservatives).

Greg Morrow’s site has the Liberals only winning 5 seats in BC, while the Election Prediction Project  has them winning 6.  Some Liberals in BC I’ve talked with this past weekend dispute both prediction numbers, with some predicting their internal numbers showed they would hold their 9 seats from last time (though they may not be all the same ones)  and were even close to picking up a seat or 2.  The NDP is forecast to pick up 9 or 10 seats, but they have a chance in Kamloops in taking a seat against the Conservative incumbent, and if they can hold seats like in Surrey North or Vancouver Island North, they too have a chance to pick up a seat or 2 from their current totals.Again, we’ll find out election night who was right.

These 2 battlegrounds are the ones I’ll be focusing on – because I think they will be an indicator of how the night goes for all the political parties fortunes.

Sunday Election Campaign Musings. The NDP

A couple of thoughts on the NDP this Sunday AM.

– Danielle posted a blogpiece at her site yesterday challenging Jack Layton’s premise that only he could stop Harper, by asking any NDP blogger/supporter to come up with 100 ridings they think the NDP could win, that would at least propel them to Official Opposition status. So far, responses from NDP partisans have been in short supply. Heck, I’d be even more lenient then Danielle: I’d take a list of 75 ridings the NDP thinks it can win in.

– A rhetorical question on my part: I, like others, am still rather sceptical even in the worst-case scenario for the […]

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