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Ontario voters not liking Hudak’s Voodoo Economics

First off, yes, this is a Forum poll, but like BigcityLib, I’ll take it as a starting point as to what people think of Tim Hudak’s 100 000 public sector job cuts/1 million jobs created dual promises. So far, they don’t like it at all, or they don’t believe Timmy can do what he claims:

Nearly two-thirds of Ontarians disapprove of Tim Hudak’s plan to cut 100,000 public servants to streamline government, a new poll suggests..The Forum Research survey also found‎ 63 per cent do not think the Progressive Conservative leader will be able to create his promised 1 million new jobs

Thas has translated to the polls as well […]

Tough night for the Ontario Libs & Wynne

Last night, there were 2 byelections in Ontario, which were seen as a test of what the political winds are like in Ontario these days. The Ontario Liberals and Premier Kathleen Wynne was hoping to wrest away Thornhill from the PC’s, while Niagara Falls, in Tim Hudak’s backyard, it was seen as a test to see which opposition party would wrest it away from the OLP.

It was not a very good night for the OLP: in Thornhill, the PC candidate won comfortably – with vote totals only slightly down from the last general election, while in Niagara Falls, Liberal support cratered, but fled mostly to the NDP, which gained […]

Can someone pay a pollster other then Forum to re-poll the Mayor Ford approval rating?

I’m rather skeptical of those numbers – or any numbers – that Forum polls after last night. The Manitoba ridings were way off, as you might have seen. The Ontario #’s were slightly better; they can claim to be within the MOE at least in those races, though not as close as they’d like, I’m sure, but their polls performed erratically and inconsistently, and I’m looking forward to Forum’s post-mortem analysis (if there is any).

Anyhow.. I’d be posting a detailed analysis of how they did, but Eric Grenier has already done it for me.. so go read him there.

Anyhow.. bottom line.. it was still a great night for […]

Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday

Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here:

In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their #’s from the prior blog remain the last polling #’s Forum has on those two ridings.

Toronto-Centre’s new polling #’s are: LPC 47, NDP 39, CPC 11, GP 3% (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris’s new polling #’s are: LPC 59%, CPC 30%, NDP 6%, GP 5% (MOE: +/- 5%)

TC’s #’s indicate finally the evidence that it was tightening, as NDP’ers […]

Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)

For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following findings:

Bourassa: Liberals 43, NDP 31, BQ 15 (Margin of Error for poll: +/- 6%) Toronto-Centre: Liberals 48, NDP 35, CPC 13 (MOE: +/- 4%) Brandon-Souris: Liberal 50%, CPC 36%, NDP 8% (MOE: +/- 5%) Provencher: CPC 48%, LPC 37%, Green 8%, NDP 6% (MOE: +/- 7%)

Forum has oft been criticized for recent polls in other byelections/elections where their […]

More encouraging polls for the Liberals

Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes:

The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the past federal election would vote Liberal if an election were held today. In fact, 45 per cent of NDP voters in total would switch their votes to another party. Twenty-five per cent of Conservative voters would switch their vote – 17 per cent of them would change it to Liberal. “These results will propel the […]

This poll and that poll – more summer bad news for the Conservatives

More polls to talk about today. First, two-thirds of Canadians who were polled disapprove of Prime Minister proroguing Parliament in Sept and waiting until late October to reconvene Parliament.

As I said in my blogpost just the other day, this is probably the most “conventional” use of proroguing Parliament (or intending to prorogue, as he hasnt formally asked for it yet) that Harper has done while in government, and it’s ironic that on the more conventional type of prorogue, Harper’s getting massive disapproval of his intent to use it again.. but I guess that’s what you get when you abuse it a couple of other times.

The other poll […]

Byelection Day in Ontario – grading the pollsters polls

Interested political observers and partisans will be looking at today’s by-elections here in Ontario to see what message the voters will be sending the Ontario Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne.

I’ll be interested in the results for more then one reason. We have had 2 polling companies – Forum, and Campaign Research – doing polling in some or all of the ridings, and I will be curious to see which of these 2 were closer to the mark (or if both are). Both of these pollsters used IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology to get their polling results, so it will be a test of how their demographics and random […]

Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections

New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1:

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a Forum Research poll…According to the survey of 689 Etobicoke—Lakeshore residents, Holyday has 47 per cent, Toronto city councillor Peter Milczyn, 40 per cent, NDP’s P.C. Choo, 7 per cent, Green candidate Angela Salewsky, 5 per cent and others, 1 per cent.. In Ottawa South, where 631 people were surveyed, 48 per cent supported Young, Fraser had 34 per cent, the […]

On Senate Reform

Your latest poll from Forum Research on what should be done with the Senate:

“More than one third want to abolish the Senate. An additional 37% called for the Senate to become an elected body. Less than 10% felt it best to leave the Senate as is. The latest results are consistent with an earlier Forum poll on the Senate, which was conducted before the scandal gained traction. Those February results also show the majority split between abolition and reform.”

I’m in the electoral reform camp, as you may know from reading here. Consequently, I disagree with Justin Trudeau that the only thing needed to improve the Senate is to […]

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