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Very interesting Green things going on in the Saanich-Gulf Islands…

..if this poll is accurate:

Of the voters who have decided and say they are definitely voting, 34 per cent said they’ll support Lunn and 32 per cent will back May. Liberal candidate Renee Hetherington and NDP candidate Edith Loring-Kuhanga each received 17 per cent…The telephone poll by McAllister Opinion Research in Vancouver polled 402 randomly selected adults in the riding between Aug. 21 and 25. A random sample of 405 would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

If anyone knows of that particular polling firm, and if they’ve been around for awhile, I’d be interested to hear from […]

EKOS poll: The first hints of discontent with Harper's prorogue?

Kady O’Malley of CBC details the EKOS poll that has just come out this AM, which shows a Conservative drop and the Liberals now only trailing the Conseratives by 5 percentage points:

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8) Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1) NDP: 16.0 (-1.0) Green: 13.4 (+2.2) Bloc Quebecois: 9.8 (+0.6) Undecided: 14.7

Regionally, the Liberals have managed to take back the lead in Ontario – the first time in a long time in an Ekos poll – and the Cons have really slipped back in Quebec (specific numbers available at the aforementioned and linked to Kady article).

Speaking of Kady, her analysis of the poll:

…let’s take a moment to ponder the […]

And here's a possible indication why the Conservatives want the detainee story to go away...

..and why I mentioned in the prior blogpost of mine that the pressure needs to be kept on them on the Afghan detainees story. The first poll taken after the Afghan detainee flap and the revelations by Colvin and then the sudden reversal by General Natynczyk that yes, there was evidence that Afghan detainees had been tortured shows public opinion starting to turn against the Cons:

Conservative Lead Narrows as Liberals Bounce Back

The governing Conservative Party is still leading in Canada, but the Liberal Party has gained support, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Public Opinion in partnership with the Toronto Star…Across the country, 36 […]

A Green Guelph?

It’s a little quiet out there today so far, so let me say I’m also going to place my money on the Guelph riding as being the riding where Green Party leader Elizabeth May will run for Parliament in the next election. There are several factors why this riding would be her best shot at winning;

– Mark Taylor has a list of reasons at his blog (he’s a Green Party supporter).

– Dan Arnold (known better by his CalgaryGrit blog and handle) also put out a list of ridings where Guelph ranked #1 in criteria (though interestingly, Dan figured she’d rather run in the Saanich-Gulf Islands Islands riding […]

I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

..but did she do as well as the polling firm Ekos has her and the Greens in Ontario?

Liberals 33, Cons. 33, NDP 20,  Green 15

I think thats the largest # I’ve seen the Greens have in Ontario from any polling firm. If you’ve been following the Ekos daily poll, they would seem to be pulling it from all parties.  So the question would be a) How accurate is Ekos methodology, and b) Is it hard or soft support for the Greens? With regards to the 2nd question, Ekos said they found that 74% of Green Party voters would “not likely” change their vote, while 17% said “likely” and 9% said “somewhat likely”.

The next question asks if they knew the Conservatives would win a majority government, would they change their vote to try and stop it, and 30% of Greens voters said they would (though I question the poll’s wording here, as one can never truly KNOW about voting night). Of course, if the polls stay the same, and it appears there is a minority government of whatever stripe,  the likelihood of them changing their vote is even more remote.

Oh, and as with other polls, Ekos also shows a narrowing down to 7% between the Cons and the Liberals, the lowest margin they’ve had since the election writ was dropped. As with Decima and Nanos, they show the Cons dropping into the teens in Quebec.

“Democracy took a beating today”

If you were to look at the front page of Progressive Bloggers (in the past couple of hours, at any rate, since this story broke), you’d think all of our affiliates were Green Party blogs. But that’s not the case. I have of course read Green bloggers outraged at the decision by the broadcast consortium to exclude Elizabeth May, because 3 of the federal party’s and their leaders threatened to take their toys and go home if she was included, but I also see a lot of Liberal bloggers, NDP bloggers, and non-partisan bloggers with no political affiliation all coming out and condemning the consortium’s ruling, saying that they should […]

Guelph Greens claim to be in 2nd place from little-known pollster.

This may be a tad irrelevant now that it looks certain that Harper will call a general election before the by-election date, thus cancelling them out, but the Guelph Greens are crowing about this poll that was taken in the riding showing them to be in 2nd place:

The poll, conducted Sept. 1 and 2 by Oraclepoll Research, shows Green Party support is now almost twice as high as the Conservatives’ and three times the level of the NDP .The standings are: Frank Valeriote, Liberals 38.4%; Mike Nagy Green Party 24.2%; Gloria Kovach, Conservatives 12.6%; Tom King, NDP 8.0%. A further 16.7% of voters are undecided..The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on Sept, 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20.

This would be a stunning result if it were accurate. The caveat there is IF it is accurate. The pollster doesn’t exactly have a lot of history of doing a lot of polls. So, as much as I’m tempted to want to believe Ms Kovach of the Cons is floundering at that level of support, I’m going to have to put this one in my “sceptical” drawer.

Green Party trying to play political cover for Liberals Green Shift?

Now this is very interesting indeed:

The Green party, meanwhile, will leap out ahead of the Liberal announcement today with a detailed accounting of its carbon-tax proposal. With its more sweeping taxes and savings, the Green plan may help pave the way to making the Liberal plan look more modest and practical, though Green Leader Elizabeth May, already in an informal co-operation pact with Dion, says that’s not the motivation.

Liz May will certainly say that isn’t her motivation, but remember, she and the Greens are on record as saying they don’t mind other political parties “borrowing” their ideas, because in their view, that benefits everyone in the long run. […]

Green Party gaining electoral strength in Toronto’s suburban areas?

If these numbers are true, and if they hold during an election, rather remarkable for the Green Party:

In its two most recent surveys of party preference in the GTA, Harris/Decima has found that the Green party is thriving in the mainly suburban, 905 area code – 16 per cent support in polling carried out over the last week, 17 per cent in a survey carried out toward the end of December. That’s virtually the same support, if not better, than the Green party enjoys in the mainly downtown, 416 area code in the GTA. For the past month, Harris/Decima has been tracking the Greens with support ranging between 11 and 15 per cent among Toronto’s urban voters. There are many implications here for the other, more mainstream parties, especially the New Democrats, who are now routinely placing well behind the Greens – by as much as seven percentage points in December – within the 905 area code…If this trend continues, it will mean the Greens are actually displacing the NDP as the third party behind the Liberals and Conservatives, at least in Toronto’s suburbs.

That’s a stunning percentage for the Green Party, and it’s probably why the NDP wishes to do the Greens no favours on the national stage (ie. not supporting May being in any leaders debate during an election campaign). It’s understandable to try and protect your position, even if it means attacking a party that is basically an ally on the environment. It makes sense though that the Greens would do well in the suburbs – this is an area that has some remaining bastions of “Red Tory’ism” in it, and those voters, who might be socially liberal and who believe in protecting the environment, but are economically conservative, might prefer the Greens to the left-of-centre social democratic/socialist NDP.

All of the mainstream parties, not just the NDP, will of course point out that until the Greens show they can maintain their strength during an election campaign and win some seats, this is nothing more then “parked votes”. That’s a good point, but for the Greens to have such strength now shows that voters in suburbia are seriously considering them as an alternative.

Green Party of Ontario close to electing their first MPP?

You’re probably thinking I’m referring to John Oglivie, who was endorsed by the Ottawa Citizen to represent Carleton-Mississippi-Mills and to defeat PC incumbent Norm Sterling. While that was news in of itself, the excitement around Green Party HQ is that their candidate in Bruce-Grey Owen Sound, Shane Jolley, has an excellent shot to unseat Bill Murdoch. You might remember Mr. Murdoch was the first PC MPP to come out publicly to dissent against Tory’s plan of faith-based school funding, and if these poll results that are being listed at the Greens page is accurate, you can see why – Jim Harris fills us in:

The poll by Oraclepoll shows:

Bill Murdoch, Progressive Conservative – 37%
Shane Jolley, Green Party of Ontario – 28%
Liberal – 21%
NDP- 13%

A shift of 4% of Murdoch’s support to Shane along with picking up just one point from the Liberals and NDP will see Shane win. And is accurate within 5.6% margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

In addition, the Owen Sound newspaper – the only one within that riding – has endorsed Mr. Jolley, and that is pretty significant. John Tory is in worse trouble then I thought if the Greens are this competitive in the bluest of blue Progressive Conservative seats.

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