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Another poll to take at face value

Ipsos-Reid was the only pollster last month that showed the three federal parties in a three way tie and the NDP at the 30% mark. This of course was immediately seized upon by my NDP colleagues – I can’t say I blame them really; though the fact they ignored every other pollster that didn’t show this was a tad amusing.

Anyhow, I quote this month’s poll not because I like its numbers (though I do) or because I like its methodology (it uses internet panels, which I’m about as leery on as I am with IVR that Forum uses), but because it now has started to reflect other polling done […]

Senate reform still desired over Senate abolition or status quo

Despite the Senate scandal deepening, it appears that for now, Canadians still prefer reforming the Senate over abolishing it, as indicated by this Ipsos-Reid poll from a couple of days ago. 49% of respondents indicated reform (and the Ipsos question on reform is worded as “..reformed to make it for example an elected body“) while 43% preferred abolishing it. Only 8% preferred the status quo – leaving it as is.

All discussions on what should be done with the Senate are on hold until the Supreme Court of Canada rules on the government’s referral on what can and can’t be done with the Senate, and what amount of consent is […]

New poll shows the challenge for the new Liberal leader

The National Post released an Ipsos-Reid poll yesterday, and it shows that a lot of the anti-Harper vote has and continues to coalesce around the NDP:

According to the poll, which asked Canadians who they would vote for if an election occurred today, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 38% of the popular vote, up three points since last month. (That’s also well up from the 2011 election, when the NDP finished second with 31% of the vote.) The governing Tories would receive 35% of the vote, down two points since last month (and also down from the 40% they attained to win a majority government last year.) Support […]

When pollsters go after each other.

As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:

Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere dupes […]

The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

We had some people wondering if the Harris-Decima poll earlier last week showing an 11 point Liberal lead was an “outlier”. Well, we have 2 new polls out this evening in a matter of minutes within each other, and while the #’s are different, the momentum is confirmed by those polls for the Liberals.

First off, we have a poll from Ipsos-Reid;

According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have 38 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for Tim Hudak and the PC party. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trail with 24 per cent… the McGuinty campaign has the […]

Counting your results before the people vote

Very interesting:

In a flash sample poll conducted last weekend on 400 decided voters, Ipsos Reid found that the gap between Hudak and McGuinty continues to narrow. Of those polled, 38% say they would vote for Hudak and the Conservatives if an election were held tomorrow, while 36% would stick with McGuinty and the Liberals.

I’m not sure if it was one of the NP’s columnists who declared Dalton Mcguinty “done” – a couple of months ago – or if it was one of the Sun’s columnists, but this poll shows why it was stupid to declare anyone “done” when an election was still months away.

Dan Gardner nails it, I think, on why the Cons want to ditch the mandatory longform census

Dan’s article in the Ottawa Citizen deals mostly with the Conservative government’s hypocrisy on the Conservatives rationale for removing the mandatory longform census because it’s too intrusive on people’s privacy, while at the same time leaving other more intrusive measures in place. That segues into his theory as to why the Conservatives are doing this move to the longform, and I think he nails it:

Hard-core conservatives have long seen the census as the foundation of left-wing social engineering. And not without some justification. Programs like employment equity couldn’t function without census data. Stephen Harper would love to scrap such programs but he wouldn’t dare under current circumstances. And so, […]

The tale of polls

One pollster comes out declaring Harper has an Olympic-sized bounce; another comes out with a poll today that says it’s a national dead-heat (with the Olympics apparently having no effect), and a 3rd one just released says its numbers show stability from the last poll it did a week ago.

More polling to come I suspect, but as far as I’m concerned, we’re back to square one with voter intentions and preferences now that Parliament is about to be “un-prorogued” (my new word invention).

If you dont believe CAPP is a reflection of public anger at prorogation...

..such as CFRB 1010’s John Moore who has liked to team up with Globe blogger Dan Cook in scoffing at the CAPP Facebook group, perhaps you and they will believe the polls show that anger – and yet another one released this evening confirms a drop for the Conservatives and a jump for the Liberals caused by – you’d never guess – public anger at prorogation:

The Conservative Party is holding a small lead over the Liberals in the latest survey from Ipsos Ried. In a telephone poll of 1,000 adult Canadians was carried out between January 19th to 21st, 34% said they would vote for the Conservatives if an […]

Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

I see some of my NDP blogging colleagues are trying to act like the Blogging Tories normally do, and trying to cherry pick a single poll from a pollster that has been perceived as being on the high end of Conservative support when it tracks those polling numbers. They use this poll to declare the end of Michael Ignatieff/The Liberals etc. etc. etc.

Well now, as CalgaryGrit just said, Michael’s obviously had a good 20 hours, since he’s managed to turn an 11 point deficit into a 1 point lead:

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall […]

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