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The road to the White House for Obama is easier then McCain.

I read this interesting bit at Daily Kos from Kos himself, discussing how Obama can win the White House even if he loses Florida and Ohio, an Achilles heel for the prior 2 Democratic candidates, Gore and Kerry:

Without Florida and Ohio, and keeping all the Kerry states (252 EV – ed), all Obama has to do to win is win 18 more Electoral Votes. He currently leads in these states:

Virginia (13) Iowa (7) New Mexico (5) Colorado (9) Montana (3)

Obama trails narrowly in:

Nevada (5) North Dakota (3) Missouri (11) Indiana (11) North Carolina (15) Georgia (15)

So there’s plenty of combinations that would get Obama to […]


It’s like shooting fish in a barrel…

I was talking to one of my friends last night who graduated with me in Political Science from The U. Of Guelph. He now works as a Conservative Party staffer, and is more “conservative” then even what the official Conservative Party orthodoxy is right now which they are trying to present to the Canadian public. So, we don’t see eye to eye on Canadian politics, to say the least.

However, our discussion was about the Obama-McCain race in the US. I made the remark that I felt Obama was going to slaughter McCain in the presidential race – that it wouldn’t be close, and that he’d win 300 electoral […]


All signs point to a Republican meltdown in November.

There was a special election held in Mississippi last night to fill a seat in Congress. This seat is one that is in deeply conservative territory; it voted for George Bush to be president by a margin of 2-1 in 2004. In this particular campaign, the Republicans tried to tar the Democratic candidate here with being a Barack Obama supporter, and more importantly, played up Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his remarks and tried to use that against him.

The result? Not good – for the Republicans that is. They lost by an 8 point margin:

For Republicans, Davis’ defeat is viewed as a possible preview for a widespread GOP thrashing in November, and it shows that trying to link local Democrats in conservative districts to Sen. Barack Obama and his former pastor was not a winning strategy.

Now, some people seem to think that Obama will not be able to stand up to the Republican slime machine when it gets into gear, but recent polls show the Republicans face long odds at making that strategy work:

The party’s fundamental situation is terrible: Republicans are saddled with an enormously unpopular president, a war, a troubled economy and a Democratic opposition that’s being energized by important constituent groups.

An analysis of the recent ABC/Washington Post poll shows signs of the Republican’s being in deep trouble. Obama leads McCain in 3 of the 4 regions of the US and even is competitive with McCain in the South – a traditional Republican stronghold. It also shows Dems are more trusted then Republicans to deal with the US’s problems – by wide margins. Another new poll out this morning shows Obama again beating McCain nationally.

Combine that with the fact that McCain will be under what I think will be a very effective attack – calling him “McSame” – as in the same as Bush and his failed policies and the Republicans in general, as well as exposing him to the public that he’s not as much of a “maverick” Republican as he’s tried to project, and I think you’re going to see a Republican bloodbath at the polls.

It is not a good year to be a Republican, and I can’t say I feel sorry for them. It can’t happen to a worse bunch (except perhaps Stephen Harper and his lot up here).

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