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Posted by Scott Tribe on January 9, 2009, at 3:46 pm |
Courtesy of Warren:
The Nanos Research survey, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Liberals have moved into a virtual tie with the governing Tories. Liberal support stood at 34 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals’ dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stephane Dion. The poll suggests the Liberal resurgence was particularly pronounced in Quebec, where the party vaulted into the lead with 39 per cent support to 29 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois, 17 per cent for the Tories and 14 per cent for the NDP. The telephone poll of 1,003 Canadians [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 11, 2008, at 2:20 pm |
Conclusion? It’s extremely volatile and fluid out there as to who is going to vote for who (with the exception of Quebec, where it seems voters are convinced they aren’t going to vote en masse for Harper.
Decima has the Cons. extending their lead to 10 here. Nanos has the gap narrowing to 4 here. Ipsos-Reid has the gap drastically narrowing to 5 from a 14 point Conservative lead taken in their poll last week here. Note the different margins in the Maritimes and Ontario for all the 3 polls, and you’ll see why it’s very fluid.
I hate to use cliches, but the winner of the election, and [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 9, 2008, at 2:39 pm |
Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:
- The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.
- The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.
- The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.
- The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 7, 2008, at 2:13 pm |
Dare I say it, the Conservatives are in real danger now; forget their hopes for a majority, they are in peril of losing the government altogether, IF the trends hold that Nanos is showing today:
CP 34%, Lib 31%, NDP 18%, BQ 11%, GP 6%
Pollster Nik Nanos comments on the new numbers:
The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario – potentially an “echo effect” from Quebec. Even if [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 5, 2008, at 3:24 pm |
Do you like Nanos? I like Nanos:
CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)
If one looks at the regional polls today, we see that the Liberals have taken a decisive lead in Atlantic Canada (not a particular surprise), but the Liberals have now risen to 28% in Quebec, still behind the BQ by a good margin, but well in front of the Conservatives, who continue their nosedive with a 16% showing today. As for Ontario, the Liberals have narrowly edged ahead here within the MOE, and they’re going to need to extend that gap to have any hope [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on October 3, 2008, at 2:11 pm |
Well now, this totally made my day. The Cons. have dropped a couple, and the Liberals have surged with a +4 from yesterday:
Conservatives: 35 (-2) Liberals : 30 (+4) NDP: 18 (-1) Greens: 10 (+1) Bloc Quebecois: 9 (-)
It appears much of the momentum comes in Quebec, where the Liberals are up 7 points from yesterday and into 2nd place in that province, perhaps reflecting Dion’s perceived strong showing and the declared winner of the French language debate. There is also upward movement in Ontario. The Conservatives on the other hand dropped 4 in Quebec and are down 3 in Ontario.
I’m going to guess partly the [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 28, 2008, at 6:25 pm |
If the latest 2 polls released today from Decima and Nanos are an accurate indicator of a Liberal turnaround in the polls and not just statistical noise, then all we engaged in the last blogpost of mine was some fun hypothetical situations.
Harper showed his “not likable streak” last week that he’s more or less masked this election, and that may have helped to trim the poll gap, as progressive moderate voters got reminded just what a nasty angry mean Conservative Party this is, led by a nasty angry mean leader. That positive momentum for the Liberals needs to be kept up. Keep the gap to single [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 22, 2008, at 8:08 pm |
Another day, and yet another Nanos poll showing still a slim 5 point Conservative lead over the Liberals.
Nik Nanos assessment:
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc.
The Cons have also slipped into 3rd place into Atlantic Canada (within the [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 21, 2008, at 3:27 pm |
The Sunday Nanos tracking poll shows another drop in Conservative support today – down from 11 on Friday, to 9 on Saturday to now just a lead of 5 points on the Liberals today. Are the new Liberal ads – 2 of them that are very tough on Harper – causing people to reconsider their support for Harper perhaps?
Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading in national support at 36%. Just 5 points behind are the Liberals at 31%, followed by the NDP at 20% and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In Central Canada, the deadlock between the Conservatives and [...]
Posted by Scott Tribe on September 15, 2008, at 3:30 pm |
There are a lot of polls out there. You also have a lot of newspapers declaring this and that over their particular poll they’ve sponsored without mentioning a thing about other polls that may contradict their specific pollster’s narrative. See the doom and gloom predictions of the Toronto Star and Jim Travers in this past Saturday edition for evidence of that.
Well, Nanos has come out with their tracking poll today, and it shows a tightening of the race down to 6 points between the Liberals and the Cons, down from 8 points the past 2 days. Note also the big undecided vote in that poll – this election [...]
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