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Another neck and neck poll in Ontario

More unsettling polling news for the Ontario PC’s and their leader Tim Hudak:

With less than eight weeks to go before Ontarians head to the polls, the race between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals has tightened, with the Tories five points ahead among decided voters, a new poll suggests. The Nanos Research poll — conducted between August 10 and August 13 for CTV, The Globe and Mail and CP24 — found the Liberals are on an upswing, closing the gap slightly with the Tories. According to the poll, support sits at 42.1 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, 37.6 per cent for the Liberals, 16.2 per cent for the […]

A rather meaningless poll

I see Nanos is trumpeting a poll that says the Conservatives have fallen back into minority territory, while the Liberals have made big gains.

It’s nice to see Conservative support slipping. Unfortunately, the Conservatives have the luxery of not caring about polls for 3 and a half more years. As for the Liberals, I’ll wait til we pick a new leader and see how that leader does in handling Conservative attack ads before I get too excited.

Nothing new here

A new Nanos poll comes out today that shows the Conservatives slightly increasing their standing from the May 2, 2011 election results. This should be no great surprise; Parliament has barely sat since the results and is about to go in its break for the summer til September, and if you thought the electorate was disengaged before the last election, they’re hardly going to be now with summer approaching. What was done during this brief Parliament sitting was a threatened back to work legislation of Air Canada employees and a bill in the making to legislate Canada Post striking workers back to work. I would gander both actions or threatened […]

Nanos poll warns NDP: you will pay in urban Canada if gun registry falls.

Just a little follow up on yesterday’s Nanos poll: While the Conservatives obviously are getting nailed in the polls over the cumulative affects of their various actions, the poll sends a warning to the NDP that they too are suffering the affects of a bad decision – namely, Jack Layton’s decision not to whip his caucus over the gun registry vote and ensure it survives:

..But the NDP is also having a difficult time. The poll suggests that because of divisions within their caucus over the long-gun registry issue, support has fallen from 21 per cent to 16 per cent…New Democrats will be able to vote independently on the bill, […]

Either Nanos is a Liberal shill too, or his poll confirms Ekos numbers

The first part of my title is a tad facetious; it refers to the fact whenever Ekos polls come out that show very close results (such as the one last Friday showing a virtual dead heat), Conservative commentators copycat the Kory Teynecke line accusing Frank Graves (Ekos president) of being a “Liberal shill”; so therefore his poll results must be biased against Conservatives. That’s the reasoning, such as it is, that I’ve seen online from our shrill Conservative supporters.

Well, we now have a Nanos poll out for the first time in months, and guess what, their numbers are also a virtual tie:

A long summer of Tory controversies, from […]

Nanos Poll: reaction

My short reaction to the Nanos poll that came out with regional specifics today is as follows:

– While we dropped a bit in Quebec, we don’t see BQ #’s anywhere close to what that Strategic Council Poll had, and the Liberals are still in that 32-33% range. I actually don’t mind those poll numbers; because Liberal support in Quebec is still highly concentrated in the Montreal area, the Liberals would probably have a net pickup of 5-10 seats in and around that area. The NDP has also surprisingly slumped into single digits in the Nanos poll. If that is true, and it confirms that part of the Quebec SC […]

A Saturday Nanos poll.

Here’s a new poll released by Nanos Research for folks to pore over today.

The gist of it is that in comparing this poll to the Nanos one taken in May, the Liberals dropped slightly and the Conservatives gained marginally, but the Liberals still lead nationally (Liberal 36.3%, Conservative 32.2%). Check out the regional breakdowns though; some very interesting shifts from region to region for all the parties.

Also, despite the attack ads launched by the Conservatives, Canadians still have a more positive view of Michael Ignatieff then negative. Not so for Harper; those Canadians with a negative view of him far outdistances those who view him positively.

So far, not a lot of bang for the millions of bucks spent on attack ads.

In line with other polls released the past week, Nanos Research’s new poll shows no sign that the attack ads released by the Conservatives have worked to halt Liberal momentum; In fact, the Nanos poll shows an increase in the gap between those who pick the Conservatives and Liberals:

Two things I’ll add: Some folks will jump on the part of the survey where it says 60% of Canadians don’t want an election over the dispute that the Conservative government and the opposition parties are having over EI, but I think that’s a bit of a misnomer. Canadians NEVER like having an election (more were opposed the last […]

Nanos poll puts Liberals in statistical lead.

Courtesy of Warren:

The Nanos Research survey, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Liberals have moved into a virtual tie with the governing Tories. Liberal support stood at 34 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals’ dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stephane Dion. The poll suggests the Liberal resurgence was particularly pronounced in Quebec, where the party vaulted into the lead with 39 per cent support to 29 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois, 17 per cent for the Tories and 14 per cent for the NDP. The telephone poll of 1,003 Canadians was […]

Nanos and Ipsos closes the Conservative-Liberal gap; Decima widens it.

Conclusion? It’s extremely volatile and fluid out there as to who is going to vote for who (with the exception of Quebec, where it seems voters are convinced they aren’t going to vote en masse for Harper.

Decima has the Cons. extending their lead to 10 here. Nanos has the gap narrowing to 4 here. Ipsos-Reid has the gap drastically narrowing to 5 from a 14 point Conservative lead taken in their poll last week here. Note the different margins in the Maritimes and Ontario for all the 3 polls, and you’ll see why it’s very fluid.

I hate to use cliches, but the winner of the election, and by […]

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